000 AXNT20 KNHC 041031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Dec 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N12W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N17W to 05N29W. Another segment of the ITCZ is along 05N38W to 03N46W. A surface trough is along 12N35W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 20W and 38W. Isolated showers elsewhere from 14N southward and 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends southward from a 1018 low in SE Louisiana near 30N90W to 19N91W. Strong northerly winds are west of the frontal boundary with seas 10-11 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Widespread light to moderate embedded shower activity in multi- layer cloudiness is east of the front. The cold front will move slowly across the basin through Saturday. Strong N to NW winds are expected to persist west of the front through this evening. The front will weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Saturday night. A surface trough will develop near the Mexican coast Saturday night and drift east to along 94W south of 26N by early Sun. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds are expected west of the trough through Sun. A deepening upper level trough is expected to induce cyclogenesis in the SE Gulf of Mexico on Monday, with a developing low pressure system moving across Florida Monday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage, south of Cuba to the Cayman Islands. Widely scattered moderate convection associated with the front is in the NW part of the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward and Haiti westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N from 73W in N Colombia to beyond Costa Rica. Isolated showers are associated with the monsoon trough. The stationary front is expected to dissipate later today. Fresh easterly winds and seas to 7-8 ft will prevail north of the front this morning. Fresh trade winds are expected across the central Caribbean through Sat. Another cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and move across the NW Caribbean on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center near 31N57W to 26N61W, then continues as a stationary front to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Isolated showers are evident on either side of the frontal boundary. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between 40W and 60W. A surface trough curves from 30N53W to 25N50W to 17N48W. A second surface trough is along 46.5W from 08N to 16N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 22N between 38W and 46W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated moderate showers are elsewhere from 14N to 27N between 40W and 53W. The front will gradually dissipate through Saturday. Strong southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight. A cold front will extend from 31N74W to central Florida on Sat, then weaken from 29N65W to near Miami Florida on Sun. A low pressure system emerging from the SE Gulf of Mexico on Monday will sweep a strong cold front across the western Atlantic Monday night through Tuesday night. Strong W to NW winds and building seas are expected west of this front early next week. $$ Mundell