000 AXNT20 KNHC 032326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of gale-force northerly winds behind a cold front that currently stretches from the coast of south-central Louisiana to near Veracruz Mexico. These strong to gale force NW winds in the western Gulf will persist from 23N to offshore Veracruz through this evening, with strong winds continuing through Fri evening. The slow moving cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Sat night. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border and extends to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N30W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near a surface trough analyzed from 11N32W to 06N35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters followed by strong to gale-force northerly winds. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. A weak 1018 mb low pressure is analyzed near SE Louisiana. A cold front extends from the low center to the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted per scatterometer data on the SE quadrant of the low forecast to dissipate on Fri. Low-level clouds are noted behind the front and are banked up along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed ahead of the frontal boundary over the central Gulf. As the cold front moves SE of the area by Sat night, a coastal trough is forecast to develop near the Mexican coast late Sat and drift E to along 94W south of 26N early Sun. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds are expected west of the trough through Sun as it drifts eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... The stationary front in the NW Caribbean extends from eastern Cuba through the Cayman Islands to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the wake of the front forecast to weaken tonight and dissipate on Fri. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms is observed just south of the front roughly across the waters between Jamaica and NE Honduras. Similar activity is noted over the SW Caribbean close to the coast of Nicaragua. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is noted over the eastern part of the basin. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail NW of this front into Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also occur through Fri across the south-central Caribbean as high pressure moves E into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, another cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N60W and continues SW to near 25N65W where it becomes stationary to eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front mainly S of 27N. A band of mainly broken low clouds with isolated showers is associated with the front, forecast to gradually dissipate on Fri. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the NE Florida coast, by Sat evening in advance of the next cold front. This feature will extend from 31N77W to north-central Florida early Sat, then weaken from 31N65W to 25N71W to the SE Bahamas early Sun. Another significant cold front will sweep across the western Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, with strong winds ahead of the front. Farther E, and area of showers and thunderstorms is over the Central Atlantic, covering roughly the area from 15N-22N between 40W-46W. This convective activity is the result of a mid-upper level low spinning near 21N47W. At the surface, a trough, reflection of this low, extends from 28N52W to 20N47W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft are on the E side of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure located well N of the area. The low pressure system previously situated between the Madeira Islands and the Azores is weakening and now is located NW of the Canary Islands near 30N21W producing only a few showers. This low will move SE and dissipate on Fri. Then, a ridge will dominate most of the east and central Atlantic by Fri. $$ GR