000 AXNT20 KNHC 030900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front off the coast of Texas this morning will spill southward into the Bay of Campeche later today. Gales will quickly develop behind the front off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon and evening. Winds will diminish to strong tonight, then remain fresh Fri and Sat. By Sun, a coastal trough in the area may bring another round of gale- force northernly winds offshore Veracruz and portions of the western Bay of Campeche. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 07N30W. A surface trough is along 32w from 02N to 10N, moving slowly W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 22W and 29W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for information for gales developing offshore Veracruz, Mexico. A cold front extends from near Port Arthur, Texas, to Tampico, Mexico. Ahead of this front, strong S winds continue W of 90W and N of 25N. Behind the front, strong N winds are developing offshore the TX coast. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in the NW Gulf N of 23N between 88W and the cold front, including coastal waters of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Elsewhere, generally moderate SE winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Some 8 to 9 ft seas are occurring in the Florida Straits and offshore the NW coast of Cuba. Strong SE to S winds will prevail ahead of the cold front today over the north-central Gulf, with strong NW winds behind the front through Fri. Gales will develop later today off Veracruz, Mexico and continue through the evening. The slow moving cold front will stretch from Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche tonight, the Florida Panhandle to Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then exit the SE Gulf Sat night. A coastal trough will develop near Mexican coast Sat, inducing more strong N winds over the western Gulf and again providing a potential for gale conditions offshore Veracruz Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... The cold front in the NW Caribbean has stalled and is now located from eastern Cuba through the Cayman Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted W of 80W S of the front, with isolated strong thunderstorms off the coast of Nicaragua. Along and north of the front, strong NE winds are ongoing with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough at 10N from 73W to Costa Rica. A tight pressure gradient between lower pressure along the N coast of Colombia and higher pressure N of the Antilles is creating some strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere in the basin, generally moderate to fresh trades prevail. The stationary front in the NW Caribbean will weaken into tonight, then dissipate Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail NW of this front through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also occur through Fri across the south central Caribbean as high pressure moves E into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, another cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to the Turks and Caicos Islands, where it has stalled and continues into eastern Cuba. A secondary front surging SE is noted from Bermuda to just E of the NW Bahamas. No precipitation is noted in association with these two weakening boundaries. Unsettled weather remains over the central Atlantic, with a trio of surface troughs inducing showers and thunderstorms. The westernmost trough extends from 31N59W to 27N56W. To the east, a trough is located from 29N53W to 18N52W. Finally, the easternmost trough stretches from 28N45W to 19N44W. An area of strong convection associated with these features is noted from 18N to 28N between 40W and 51W. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 31N21N, or midway between the Azores and the Canary Islands. Some gales are likely occurring N of the area, well away from the center, closer to the Azores. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 180 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Winds associated with this low along with northerly swell between the aforementioned troughs and this low are leading to a broad area of 8 to 15 ft seas N of about 20N. The western Atlantic cold front will stall tonight and dissipate Fri. Strong S winds may develop off the SE U.S. coast Sat in advance of the next cold front. $$ KONARIK