000 AXNT20 KNHC 022322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Dec 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: the most recent scatterometer data provided observations of strong SE winds over the NW Gulf. These winds will weaken slightly and shift eastward as a cold front moves off the coast of Texas this evening. The front is forecast to reach the central Gulf Thu night, the eastern Gulf Fri night, then move SE of the area by late Sat. Gale conditions will briefly develop in the far SW Gulf behind the advancing front Thu afternoon through evening. Then, a coastal trough will develop from the central Bay of Campeche to offshore of Brownsville, Texas on Sat. Strong N winds are expected to develop W of the trough Sat night through Sun, with gale conditions possible offshore of the Veracruz, Mexico area. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Convection is currently limited. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features Section above for details. A ridge dominates the State of Florida and most of the Gulf region anchored by a high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S. This system is producing fresh to locally strong NE-E winds across the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather conditions were observed across South Florida today. In the western Gulf, a surface trough is analyzed from 25N97W to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are on the E side of the trough while mainly light westerly winds are on the W side of the trough axis. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is over the NW Gulf. A diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of a mid-upper level trough is helping to induce this convective activity. Scattered cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front lingers across the NW Caribbean and extends from Camaguey/Las Tunas border in Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. A narrow band of cloudiness with some shower activity is related to the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen per scatterometer data in the wake of the front, including the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is ahead of the front over the central Caribbean and runs from 19N75W to near 11N76W. Latest visible satellite imagery as well as the 925 mb streamlines confirmed the presence of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong winds are also noted on either side of the trough per latest satellite-derived wind data N of 14N between 73W-79W. Fresh NE winds are blowing across the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the trough covering mainly the waters from 14N-18N between 71W-77W, and from 10N-13N between 76W-80W. The stationary front will gradually become more E to W aligned and weaken through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail NW of this front. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across the central Caribbean this evening through Thu night as high pres over the SE CONUS moves E into the W Atlantic. Looking ahead, another cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N65W and continues SW to near 27N68W where it becomes stationary to Camaguey/Las Tunas border in Cuba. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front S of 27N. A band of mainly broken low clouds with embedded showers is associated with the front, forecast to drift SE through Fri then stall and dissipate. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and high seas will prevail mainly S of 26N W of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat. A weak low pressure of 1014 mb is located near 30N59W. Visible satellite pictures show a well defined swirl of low clouds associated with this low. Farther E, and area of showers and thunderstorms is over the Central Atlantic, covering roughly the area from 20N-28N between 40W-52W. This convective activity is the result of a mid-upper level low spinning near 24N49W. At the surface, a trough, reflection of this low, extends from 27N52W to 20N53W. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system remains centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores producing some shower activity over the Madeira Islands. A surface trough crosses the Canary Islands. $$ GR