000 AXNT20 KNHC 021744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move SE through the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Thu, bringing strong N winds and building seas in its wake. By Thu afternoon, northwest gale force winds will develop offshore Veracruz and portions of the western Bay of Campeche. Seas will build 8 to 10 ft. These winds and seas will continue through Thu evening before decreasing overnight Thu. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 12W to 23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ from 04N to 12N between 23W to 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features Section above for details on the gale warning from Thu to Thu night in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridging stretches across most of the Gulf anchored by high pressure centered over the Southeast U.S. In the western Gulf, a surface trough is analyzed from 25N97W to the coast of Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered moderate convection is north and east of the trough, in addition to being along the southeast Texas coast, from 24N to 30N between 93W to 96W. Strong to near gale force southeasterly winds are noted in the NW Gulf along the southeast Texas coast. Moderate to fresh south to southeasterly winds are noted from the South Texas coast southward into the Bay of Campeche east of the trough. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted in the eastern and central Gulf. Seas range 3 to 6 ft across the basin with upwards of 7 ft near the middle Texas coast and upwards of 8 ft near the Yucatan Passage. Strong SE winds continue to develop over the NW Gulf in advance of a cold front over Texas. These winds will prevail SE of the front through tonight as the cold front moves off the coast this evening. Gale conditions will develop in the far SW Gulf behind the advancing front Thu afternoon and night behind the front. The cold front will move through the central Gulf Thu night and eastern Gulf Fri night, then move SE of the area by late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front lingers across the NW Caribbean from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to the Gulf of Honduras near 17N89W. A 1015 mb low is also in the Gulf of Honduras near 17N88W. Scattered showers are within 70 nm of the front. A pre-frontal trough is noted from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean from 19N75W to 11N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of Hispaniola from 15N to 18N between 71W to 76W. Showers are moving westward across the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. The monsoon trough stretches across the SW Caribbean from the coast of Colombia near 10N76W to the coast of Panama near 09N82W with a 1009 mb low near 10N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 14N between 77W to 84W. Fresh to strong ENE winds are north of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted in the central Caribbean and light to gentle winds are in the eastern basin. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 9 ft in the NW Caribbean. The stationary front will gradually become more E to W aligned and weaken through late Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will prevail NW of this front. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across central portions this evening through Thu night as high pres moves E into the W Atlc. Looking ahead, another cold front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area near 31N66W to the southern Bahamas near 23N73W to the northeast Cuban coast near 21N76W. Showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. Fresh NE winds are north of the front. A pre-frontal trough is east of the front from 25N68W to 20N66W with no significant convection associated with the trough. A 1014 mb low is near 30N59W with a trough along it from 32N61W to 27N56W. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are NE of the low. Another trough is in the central Atlantic from 29N62W to 18N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and east of this trough from 20N to 29N between 45W to 52W. A trough stretches across the Canary Islands from 30N15W to 22N22W. Seas range 4 to 8 ft across the western Atlantic with upwards of 10 ft near the northern portion of the cold front. Upwards of 12 ft are near the low. A 1007 mb low pressure centered near 32N22W in the far eastern Atlantic is producing gale force winds between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. Scattered moderate convection is occurring mainly to the NE of the center. Fresh to strong ESE winds are to the northwest of the Canary Islands. Please read the Meteo-France high seas forecast at http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. The cold front will drift SE and stall through late week. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and high seas will prevail mainly S of 26N W of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat. $$ AKR/CM