000 AXNT20 KNHC 012356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. THEIR WEBSITE IS: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 07N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N28W TO 05N140W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 12W AND 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure is across the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high over SE Louisiana. This is providing gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the western half of the basin while a stronger pressure gradient over the eastern half of the gulf supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds with seas to 9 ft. Strong SE return flow will set up Wed over the NW Gulf, ahead of a cold front that will enter the Gulf early Wed night. By Thu night, this front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the central Bay of Campeche, with brief gale conditions likely redeveloping off Veracruz Thu afternoon through evening. The cold front will move SE of the Gulf late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level divergent flow along with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough continue to support scattered showers and tstms over the SW Caribbean, including central America. This area of showers and tstms extends to the central Caribben over Hispaniola adjacent waters. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean extending from central Cuba to the central Gulf of Honduras will gradually dissipate through late Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will prevail NW of this front through Thu morning. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across central portions late Wed through Thu as high pres behind the front shifts into the W Atlc. Looking ahead, another weaker front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A cold front stretches from 31N70W through the central Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N77W. This front will reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and east central Cuba by Wed morning, then weaken and drift SE before stalling across the SE waters late Thu through Fri. Strong NW winds and building seas will prevail behind the front, mainly N of 28N and W of 70W through this evening. The remainder basin is under the influence of surface ridging, except the north-central waters where a middle to upper level low continue to support a 1012 mb low near 23N48W. A surface trough extends from 31N49W to the low to 20N44W. Scattered showers and tstms are in the vicinity of this elongated area of low pressure, from 20N to 29N between 40W and 52W. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat morning. $$ Ramos