000 AXNT20 KNHC 010546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Dec 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles northwest of the Madeira Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms well to the east of the center. This low has changed little in organization over the last 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for it to acquire subtropical characteristics over the next day or so as it drifts southwestward. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of subtropical development, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. Their website is: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds are occurring over Veracruz adjacent waters and in the Bay of Campeche. These conditions will continue through tonight as the front continues moving southeast and out of the basin. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N13W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 06N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 14W-32W, and from 05N-09N between 37W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf. A cold front is over the Straits of Florida from 25N80W to beyond W Cuba near 23N82W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere, overcast low clouds and scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche S of 21N. A 1028 mb high is over S Texas near 29N98W producing surface ridging over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. In the wake of a the Straits of Florida cold front, strong winds and high seas will gradually diminish into Tue. Ongoing gale conditions off Veracruz will end overnight. Expect strong SE winds ahead of a second front entering the northwest Gulf late Wed. This front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Thu, with gales again likely off Veracruz. The front will reach from the Florida Peninsula to Yucatan Peninsula Fri, then move SE of the Gulf Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N82W to N Guatemala near 17N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Further S, numerous strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 76W-82W. This convection is accompanied with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through late week. The cold front over the NW Caribbean will move E through Tue, then weaken and stall Wed from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas through Wed. Looking ahead, another front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic NW of the Madeira Islands. A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N46W to 22N50W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 22N between 43W-49W. The W Atlantic cold front will be accompanied by strong to near gale force winds on both sides of its boundary through Tue. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed, and stall and dissipate from 25N65W to western Cuba through late week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat. $$ Formosa