994 AXNT20 KNHC 302359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large non-tropical low pressure system centered north of the Madeira Islands is producing gale-force winds in addition to a broad region of showers and thunderstorms. This low has changed little in organization over the last 24 hours, but it could still acquire subtropical characteristics as it drifts slowly southwestward over the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of subtropical development, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday. This low has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Also, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N77W to 25N81W to 16N91W. Gale force winds are occurring over Veracruz adjacent waters and in the Bay of Campeche. These conditions will continue through tonight as the front continues moving southeast and out of the basin. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to 06N41W to the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-13N between 17W and 35W, and from 02N to 08N between 36W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf. A cold front over the southeast Gulf will exit the basin this evening. Gale force winds behind the front off Veracruz will diminish tonight, with winds and seas subsiding across the rest of the Gulf through Tue. Expect strong SE winds ahead of a second front entering the northwest Gulf late Wed. The front will reach from southeast Louisiana to the southwest Gulf by late Thu, with gales again possible off Veracruz. The front will reach from the northeast Gulf to the southwest Gulf by late Fri then move southeast of the area by Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pre-frontal surface trough extending from 22N81W to 17N86W continue to suport scattered showers over western Cuba and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Upper level divergent flow along with the monsoon trough that pass across Costa Rica and Panama into northern Colombia continue to support numerous heavy showers and tstms over the SW basin. These showers are accompanied with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas to 9 ft. Middle level dry air and a middle level anticyclone over the eastern half of the basin support fair weather conditions for that region of the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into late week. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean tonight then gradually weaken and stall by mid week from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas through mid week. Looking ahead, another front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic N of the Canary Islands that has the potential for subtropical development this week. A surface trough is ahead of this low extending from 30N14N to 26N20W. No convection is currently occurring along this trough. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N46W to 23N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 21N between 42W and 53W. Over the far NW waters, a cold front extends from 31N77W to 27N80W, which is generating scattered showers and tstms to the waters N of the Bahamas. Strong to near gale force SW to W winds are ahead and behind of the front N of 28N W of 69W with seas to 12 ft. These conditions will accompany the front as it moves across the region through Tue. The front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by mid week, and stall and dissipate from 25N65W to western Cuba through late week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida by late Sat. $$ Ramos