000 AXNT20 KNHC 301000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large non-tropical low pressure centered near the Madeira Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low is expected to meander through Tue and could acquire subtropical characteristics during that time. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of development, this system should cause strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday. Gale force winds are occurring with this low. This low has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Also, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida to the western Bay of Campeche. Some strong thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of this front within about 200 nm of the Florida Big Bend coast, otherwise, scattered moderate showers extend along and just behind the front into the central Gulf of Mexico. This cold front and associated convection will continue moving SE through the Gulf today and exit SE of the basin this evening. Gales will develop shortly in the western Bay of Campeche and within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. These gales will persist into tonight. Elsewhere, strong N winds and building seas can be expected in the wake of the cold front. Conditions will improve Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-11N between 15W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on the strong cold front crossing the basin, producing gales in the SW Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to locally strong S winds are occurring. This front will cross the basin today and move SE of the Gulf this evening. Strong N winds and building seas exist behind this front, and gales will develop this morning in the extreme SW Gulf and continue into Mon night. Winds and seas will decrease Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift E Tue night through Wed night allowing for fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds basin-wide. Another cold front late in the week may bring gale conditions to the SW Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel are associated with a surface trough that is located in the western Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also located over the SW Carribbean S of 13N and E of 76W, in association with the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough and low pressure centered along the northern coast of Colombia. This low is aiding in locally strong trade winds off the NE coast of Colombia this morning. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into late week, except for strong NE winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia this morning. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean tonight then gradually weaken and stall by mid week from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas Tue and Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic N of the Canary Islands that has the potential for subtropical development early this week. A surface trough extends from this low SE between the Canary Islands and the coast of Africa, from near 31N15N to 23N19W. No convection is currently occurring along this trough. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from near 31N50W to 23N60W to 27N73W. The front then stalls and evolves into a warm front over the western Atlantic from 27N73W to 31N78W. Convection along this frontal system has diminished, but activity is ongoing in within 90 nm of a pre-frontal trough that is located from 31N46W to 20N54W. Strong SSE winds are also occurring ahead of this trough N of 25N. Farther W, S of the warm front and ahead of an inland cold front advancing toward the coast of the SE U.S., strong S winds have developed mainly N of 28N. Strong thunderstorms will emerge off the coasts of N FL, GA, and SC later this morning ahead of the cold front. Strong to near gale force S winds will develop N of 27N and W of 72W today and tonight, ahead of a cold front the will exit the SE U.S. coast this evening. This front will move east while slowly weakening, then stall from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba mid-week. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to NE of the Bahamas. $$ KONARIK