000 AXNT20 KNHC 300530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic has become a little better organized since yesterday. This low could acquire subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days while it meanders just to the north of the Canary Islands. By the middle of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of development, this system should cause strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Monday or Tuesday. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of gale force winds in association with this feature, that is stacked with a large mid-upper level low. This low has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Also, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from a 1006 mb low pressure located over central Alabama to near Veracruz, Mexico. A wide band of mainly overcast low clouds is associated with the frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Florida Panhandle. Mosaic Doppler radar from the SE of U.S. shows this convective activity affecting mainly the Gulf waters N of 28N between 82W-91W. The low will continue to move northeastward tonight. The front will exit the Gulf by Mon night. Strong north winds and building seas will follow the front, with gales developing Mon in the SW Gulf near the Veracruz region. Seas generated from the gale-force winds will peak 12-16 ft on Mon afternoon. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by late Mon night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-11N between 15W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters that is forecast to produce gale-force winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Please, see Special Features section for details. Currently, fresh to strong winds area noted in the wake of the front, and ahead of the front, in the southerly flow, N of 27N. The front will cross the basin Mon and be SE of the Gulf Mon night. Strong N winds and building seas exist behind this front, and gales will develop Mon morning in the extreme SW Gulf and continue into Mon night. Winds and seas will decrease Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift E Tue night through Wed night allowing for fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds basin-wide. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed, reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by Thu night and from Apalachee Bay to near 25N87W and to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri night. Fresh to strong north winds and building seas will follow in behind this front, with gale force N winds likely offshore Veracruz, Mexico Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to 17N90W. Scattered showers extend E to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 76W-83W mostly due to the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the E Caribbean E of 69W. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through the mid-week, except for strong northeast winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia through Mon. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean Mon night, extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue evening, become stationary Wed night, and dissipate Thu. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building seas Tue and Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N52W and extends SW to 26N60W to 26N67W. A stationary front continues to 28N73W. A warm front continues to beyond 31N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. Scattered moderate convection is E of the cold front from 21N-31N between 38W-49W. Further E, a surface trough is over the Canary islands from 31N15W to 23N18W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Strong to near gale-force S winds are developing in the wake of the western Atlantic warm front N of 27N and W of 72W, ahead of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon. This front will move across the waters Tue, then reside from Bermuda to central Cuba Wed morning. This front will weaken and stall Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken as it shifts eastward through Fri night. $$ Formosa