550 AXNT20 KNHC 292328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic has become a little better organized since yesterday. This low could acquire subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days while it meanders just to the north of the Canary Islands. By the middle of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of development, this system should cause strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Monday or Tuesday. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of gale force winds in association with this feature, that is stacked with a large mid-upper level low. This low has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Also, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over southeastern Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico. A wide band of mainly overcast low clouds is associated with the frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the low center. Mosaic Doppler radar from the SE of U.S. shows this convective activity affecting mainly the Gulf waters N of 28N between 84W-91W. The low will continue to move northeastward tonight, dragging the cold front to a position from near Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche. The front will exit the Gulf by Mon night. Strong north winds and building seas will follow the front, with gales developing Mon in the SW Gulf near the Veracruz region. Seas generated from the gale-force winds will peak 15-16 ft on Mon afternoon. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by late Mon night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N between 13W-20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N-08N between 28W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N-10N between 24N-30W, and from 05N-07N between 30W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf waters, and it is forecast to produce gale-force winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a Gale warning is in effect. Please, see Special Features section for details. Currently, fresh to strong winds area noted in the wake of the front, and ahead of the front, in the southerly flow, N of 27N. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for fresh east to southeast winds to set up across the area. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed, reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by Thu night and from Apalachee Bay to near 25N87W and to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri night. Fresh to strong north winds and building seas will follow in behind this front, with gale force northerly winds possible offshore Veracruz, Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough is over the eastern Caribbean and extends along 63W/64W. Scattered showers are near the trough axis. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is over the SW Caribbean covering the waters from 10N-12.5N between 77W-82W. This convective activity appears related to the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through the mid-week, except for strong northeast winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia through Mon. A cold front will reach western Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Mon night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas of 8-9 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue evening, become stationary Wed night, and dissipate Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front is forecast to produce fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba by Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N58W, then continues SW to near 27N65W and westward to near 28N74W. A warm front extends from 28N74W to a weak 1015 mb low pressure located near 31N80W. A stationary front continues southwest from the low center across northern Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the low center. A scatterometer pass indicated fresh easterly winds on the north side of the warm front. The entire frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm front tonight into Mon. In the wake of this front, strong south winds will develop Mon morning as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon, then cross the northwest waters Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba Tue evening. The front will gradually weaken and stall by Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 26N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken as it shifts eastward through Fri night. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N49W to 21N55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on the E side of the trough N of 21N between the trough and 45W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Another surface trough crosses the Madeira Islands. A ridge is between these two features. $$ GR