000 AXNT20 KNHC 291724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front continues to move south and east across the northwestern Gulf. This front will continue to move SE across the Gulf of Mexico, reaching the SW Gulf tonight. Gale-force winds will develop W of the front within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico by Mon morning, then prevail through Mon night. Seas generated from the gale- force winds will peak near 13 ft on Mon afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 06N34W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 03N to 16N between 09W to 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico. At 29/1500 UTC, a 1011 mb low is centered near 29N93W. A warm front extends eastward from the low across the northeast Gulf to the coast of Florida near 29N83W. A cold front extends south of the low to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered moderate convection is in the northwest Gulf, N of 26N between 86W to 97W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted ahead of the warm front, with moderate to fresh southerly winds south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front especially near the low. Seas range 1 to 3 ft, with upwards of 7 ft in the NW Gulf. As the low moves northeastward inland Louisiana this afternoon and the warm front lifts north of the Gulf this afternoon, the front will accelerate eastward behind it into the western Gulf. By tonight, the cold front will stretch from near Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche and move southeast of the region by Mon night. Strong north winds and building seas will follow the front, with gales developing Mon in the extreme SW Gulf. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for fresh east to southeast winds to set up across the area. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by late Thu. Fresh to strong north winds and building seas will follow in behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough located in the eastern Caribbean extends from the Lesser Antilles near 18N62W to northern Venezuela near 11N64W. Scattered showers are noted near the trough form 11N to 15N between 59W to 69W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 13N between 77W to 84W. Moderate to fresh trades are north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 9 ft north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through the mid-week, except for strong NE winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia through Mon. A cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue evening, become stationary Wed night, and dissipate Thu. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building seas Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb low is centered near 31N80W. A stationary front extends southwest of the low to the Florida coast near 29N81W. A warm front extends southeast of the low near 29N76W, and a cold front extends from 29N76W to 30N62W. Showers are near the boundaries but no significant convection is associated with this system at this time. A trough extends in the central Atlantic from 31N51W to 22N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of the trough, N of 22N between 42W to 50W. Another trough in the central Atlantic is farther south from 20N51W to 10N54W. Showers are noted east of the trough from 10N to 16N between 48W to 53W. A dying cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N11W to 24N24W to 31N37W. Showers are within 50 nm of the boundary. Gentle to moderate winds are noted mostly across the region with fresh to strong S winds east of the central Atlantic trough and seas up to 12 ft. Seas range 4-8 ft. The entire frontal boundary in the western Atlantic will lift back north as a warm front tonight into Mon. In the wake of this front, strong south winds will develop Mon morning as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon, then cross the northwest waters Mon night, and reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba Tue evening. The front will gradually weaken and stall by Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front,mainly N of 26N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Thu night. $$ AReinhart