000 AXNT20 KNHC 282200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico early Sun. The front will shift across the Gulf of Mexico, reaching the southwest Gulf Monday morning. Gale- force winds will develop W of the front within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. The gale force winds will prevail through Mon before diminishing below gale force Tue. Seas generated from the gale- force winds will peak near 15 ft on Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 04N34W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 20W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information the gale warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to near 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of the front, and within 30 nm south of the front. Surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high near 26N78W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Light winds prevail over the NE Gulf, and gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 1-2 ft over the NE Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere. The cold front will begin to lift back north as a warm front late tonight into Sun morning. At the same time, low pressure will track northeastward along the upper Texas coast dragging a strong cold front into the NW Gulf. The front will quickly reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. Gale force winds are likely in the extreme SW Gulf Mon into Mon night. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for moderate to fresh east to southeast flow to set up across the area. A frontal system is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night and reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow in behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the basin through early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the northeastern Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary through Wed night and dissipate Thu. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N69W to N Florida. Scattered showers prevail north of the trough. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 26N78W. W of 65W, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 32N56W to 21N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm east of the trough. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 25N, east of the trough to near 45W. Seas over this area are in the 8-12 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail west of the trough to near 65W. Farther east, A cold front is dropping southward across the eastern Atlantic, entering the discussion waters near 32N12W to 29N24W to 32N35W with showers along the boundary. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of the front. Over the tradewind zone south of 20N, moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail. Seas over this area are in the 6-9 ft range. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will continue to weaken through Sun as a weak cold front near 30N moves south to near 29N. The front will lift back north as a warm front through early Sun evening. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun evening as a strong cold front approaches. The cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast early Mon, move over the northwest forecast waters Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida Mon night, from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 26N and W of 71W as strong southwest will precede it. Winds diminish Tue evening, with the highest seas shifting to NE of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Thu night. $$ AL