000 AXNT20 KNHC 281726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will drop southward across the Gulf of Mexico and will approach the southwest Gulf by Monday morning. As the front moves into this area, NW to N gale-force winds will develop around 30/1200 UTC from 19N to 21N between 95W-96W, within 60 nm of Veracruz. Seas will build to 9 to 11 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Nevada near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 04N32W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 13W to 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for information on the Gulf of Mexico gale warning. At 28/1500 UTC, a cold front stretched from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to Corpus Christi, TX near 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the NW Gulf, N of 27N between 88W to 97W. Surface ridging continues across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1018 mb high near 26N83W. Light to gentle SSE winds are noted across most of the basin with moderate to fresh NNE winds behind the front. Seas range 2-4 ft. The cold front will move a little southward through this afternoon and become stationary tonight. The front will begin to lift back north as a warm front late tonight into Sun morning. At the same time, low pressure will track northeastward along the upper Texas coast dragging a strong cold front into the NW Gulf. The front will quickly reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. Gale force winds are likely in the extreme SW Gulf Mon into Mon night. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for moderate to fresh east to southeast flow to set up across the area. Another cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging over the northwest Caribbean is keeping conditions dry across most of the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the southern Caribbean, S of 14N between 60W to 82W. Moderate to fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean with gentle trades elsewhere. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the central Atlantic, a 1009 mb low is centered near 27N57W, or about 565 nm SE of Bermuda. A trough extends southwest of it to near 21N63W. Scattered moderate convection continues to be east of this system, N of 25N between 45W to 55W. Moderate to fresh SSE winds are noted east of the low. Seas range from 10-14 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so as the low moves northeastward before it is absorbed by an approaching frontal system over the north-central Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and the next 5 days. In the western Atlantic, a pre-frontal trough extends south of a cold front approaching the forecast waters from 30N72W to 30N80W. No significant convection is associated with this trough. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 28N76W. In the central Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 11N56W to 18N56W. Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the trough from 10N to 17N between 48W to 56W. A cold front is dropping southward across the eastern Atlantic, entering the forecast waters near 31N20W to 33N35W with showers along the boundary. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted in the central Atlantic N of 24N between 41W to 50W. Seas range from 4-7 ft. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will continue to weaken through Sun as a weak cold front near 31N moves south to near 29N. The front will lift back north as a warm front through early Sun evening. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun evening as a strong cold front approaches. The cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast early Mon, move over the northwest forecast waters Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida Mon night, from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front,mainly N of 26N and W of 71W as strong southwest will precede it.Winds diminish Tue evening, with the highest seas shifting to NE of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ AReinhart