000 AXNT20 KNHC 281001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 06N28W to 07N40W and to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 35W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow-moving cold front stretches from near Mobile Bay to Corpus Christi Texas. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along and north of this boundary. Otherwise, high pressure remains dominant through the Gulf and no significant convection is ongoing. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are occurring N of the front with gentle to moderate mainly SE winds elsewhere. A stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf by Sun morning, quickly reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. Gales are likely in the extreme SW Gulf late Mon. Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night allowing for moderate to fresh east to southeast flow to set up across the area. Another cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is noted along the coast of Venezuela and N of Panama along the extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds are ongoing. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin through early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 mb low pressure center near 27N58W is moving slowly north. Convection with this low has been displaced well N and E of the center, from 23N to 32N between 42W and 57W, with fresh to strong SE winds to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for tropical development this weekend as the low begins to move more quickly to the northeast ahead of and approaching cold front. By early next week, the low will be absorbed by the front. This system has a low chance of tropical formation this weekend. To the south of this low, a surface trough extends along 57N from Guyana to 20N. Scattered moderate convection is within about 150 E of the trough axis from 11N to 16N. A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 28N76W is keeping dry conditions with light to gentle winds in place over the SW Atlantic, while a weakening cold front between Bermuda and the United States is sagging southward toward 30N. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across northern part of the area. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun evening as a strong cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida Mon night, from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 26N and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue evening, with the highest seas shifting to NE of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ KONARIK