000 AXNT20 KNHC 280605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W, to 06N28W, to 07N40W, and to 07N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 06N to 10N between 36w and 45W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 53W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico, with a surface ridge along 27N/28N between 70W and 90W. A cold front passes through the south central coast of Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast, and westward, into west Texas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the north of the line that runs from the deep south of Texas to north central Florida. More broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the north of the cold front. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. It will reach quickly from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sunday evening; and to the southeast of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. Gale-force winds are likely in the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico late on Monday. The wind speeds will diminish and the sea heights will subside on Tuesday. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward, from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, allowing for moderate to fresh east to southeast wind flow to set up across the area. Another cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 77W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from Hispaniola westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/11N from 72W in NW Venezuela, beyond Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 72W westward. An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola to the northern coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday evening. The front will extend from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras on Tuesday afternoon, and become stationary through Wednesday night. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building seas. The winds and the seas are expected to diminish on Tuesday night. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 28N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 340 nm to 640 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, from 24N northward. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development this weekend, as the low pressure center moves northeastward, in front of an approaching frontal system. The system is expected to become absorbed by this frontal system, in the north central Atlantic Ocean, by early next week. A surface trough is along 55W/58W, from the coast of Guyana to 20N. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 145 nm to the east of the surface trough from 12N to 15N. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across the NW part of the area. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida Mon evening, from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N and W of 70W. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ mt