000 AXNT20 KNHC 271705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 mb low pressure is centered in the Atlantic Ocean near 26N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the center from 22N to 32N between 48W to 57W. Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in coverage since yesterday near this well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Development is unlikely during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. By Sunday, environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for the low to briefly acquire subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward ahead of a frontal system. By early next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development as the system interacts with or becomes absorbed by a frontal system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and the next 5 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal region of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 04N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. An area of scattered moderate convection is moving into the Atlantic off the coast of Sierra Leone from 07N to 09N and east of 14W. Scattered moderate convection is along and north of the ITCZ from 02N to 07N between 21W to 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging is noted across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1021 mb high over northern Florida near 29N82W. Dry conditions prevail over the basin with light to gentle east-southeast winds in the eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate south-southeast winds in the western Gulf. Seas range 3-4 ft across the basin. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night, quickly reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. These conditions will diminish Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected ahead of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level trough extends across the Lesser Antilles to the northern Guianas. This is beginning scattered showers across the southern islands across the Lesser Antilles to the ABC Islands, S of 14N between 59W to 69W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough, mostly along the Panama coast, S of 11N between 77W to 83W. Upper level ridging extends across the northern and central Caribbean with dry conditions prevailing throughout the region. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range from 3 to 6 feet with upwards of 8 ft north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into early next week. A cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon evening and extend from eastern Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua late Tue. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on the low pressure SE of Bermuda. A trough extends across the western Atlantic off the U.S. East Coast from 29N80W to 35N74W. Most of the convection associated with this trough is N of 32W, but showers are seen within 50 nm along it. A trough is also right along the South Florida coast bringing showers to the area. A trough is in the central Atlantic from 10N56W to 17N55W with scattered moderate convection from 11N to 14N between 54W to 58W. Otherwise, high pressure ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1029 mb high near 34N37W. Light to gentle winds are in the western Atlantic with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong winds are in the central Atlantic from 11N to 31N and east of 52W with seas ranging 7 to 11 ft. High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida early on Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening and from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas by late Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front. $$ AReinhart