000 AXNT20 KNHC 251030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Sierra Leone near the border with Guinea, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 05N26W to 06N37W to 04N47W. Widely scattered moderate showers are noted is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 15W and 25W. Broken to overcast multi- layered clouds and embedded showers are to the east and southeast of a line from 30N14W to 25N27W to 12N38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from Georgia to the central Gulf of Mexico to the coast of Mexico near 20N98W. A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight. The front will stall and move northward on Thursday. A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico waters on Sunday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is in the western Caribbean Sea, extending SW from western Cuba. Widely scattered moderate showers cover the area from 17N southward between 80W and 86W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the southern coast of Haiti. The monsoon trough is along 10N from 76W in northern Colombia, to 85W in western Costa Rica. Scattered isolated strong convection is within 150 nm south of the trough axis. High pressure building behind a cold front north of the region will increase the winds and the seas in the central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the area from Thursday night through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to a 1015 mb low pressure area near 27N61W to the Windward Passage near 20N73W. A surface trough extends from the low center to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted between 150 and 400 nm east of the cold front, from 24N to 30N. A few showers are within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. The current cold front will shift slowly eastward today, then become stationary on Thursday. Fresh to strong NE winds, that are associated with the front, will prevail across most of the region through early Thursday. $$ Mundell