000 AXNT20 KNHC 241729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...The gradient of pressure has tightened between a broad area of low pressure located about 450 nm east of Bahamas and a strong ridge over the central Atlantic. This is resulting in gale force SE winds within 90 nm east of the trough axis that extends from 31N61W to a 1008 mb low near 26N65W to 19N68W. These conditions are expected to dissipate this evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 08N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N33W, then resumes near 06N36W and continues to 04N51W. A 1009 mb low is analyzed near 06N34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-08N between 13W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-13N between 26W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high centered over North Carolina near 36N79W extends a ridge axis to the central Gulf of Mexico near 22N89W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are over the Gulf. Deep layer dry air dominates the region and continue to support fair weather. Return flow will prevail over the western Gulf through tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the northern Gulf late Wed, then stall and lift northward Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters over the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over both the Gulf of Mexico and the central Atlantic continue to support moderate to locally fresh winds across the basin. Scattered showers are observed in a swath from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, to the Gulf of Honduras. Further south, widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean. Winds and seas across the south-central Caribbean will begin to increase late Tue through Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Windward passage and south-central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect over the west-central Atlantic. As of 24/1500 UTC, a cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 24N70W to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 28N between 59W-63W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N61W to a 1008 mb embedded low near 26N64W to the E tip of Hispaniola near 19N69W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail behind the cold front, with seas to 7 ft. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 29N36W to 23N31W. The trough is void of precipitation. The gale low/trough is expected to move northeastward, and there is a slight chance that it could acquire some subtropical characteristics before it merges with the cold front today. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will dominate the remainder central Atlantic waters along with moderate to fresh easterlies and seas to 8 ft. $$ Formosa