000 AXNT20 KNHC 240602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic gale warning...The gradient of pressure has tightened between a broad area of low pressure located about 420 nm northeast of the central Bahamas and a strong ridge over the central Atlantic. This is resulting in near gale force SE winds within 90 nm east of the trough axis that extends along 30N67W to a 1011 mb low near 27N68W to 21N70W. These winds are expected to reach gale force tonight and prevail in that magnitude through Tue evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 11N16W to 11N17W. The ITCZ continues from 11N17W to 09N25W to 07N32W, then resumes near 05N37W and continues to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 15N between 20W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure over the eastern half of the United States extends southward into the Gulf waters, and provides with mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds. Deep layer dry air dominates the region and continue to support fair weather. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through Tue night when it will start to weaken and shift eastward ahead of the next cold front that is expected to come off the coast of Texas on Wed morning. The front will extend from central Louisiana SW to the southern tip of Texas by early Thu morning where it will briefly stall before lifting north during the evening hours. A second and stronger cold front is forecast to move off the coast of Texas Fri evening and extend from Alabama SW to the Bay of Campeche Sat evening. Seas will range between 3 to 6 ft through at least Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over both the Gulf of Mexico and the central Atlantic continue to support moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean and trades winds of the same magnitude across the eastern half of the basin. Only scattered showers and isolated tstms are observed in a swath from Hispaniola, the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras to Nicaragua adjacent waters. This line of showers is being supported by shallow moisture and divergent flow between two middle level anticyclones. Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will start to shift eastward to the region of the Bahamas today and will result in a stronger pressure gradient in the Caribbean. This in turn will increase the winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu and support fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W SW to Andros Island to the Straits of Florida with moderate to fresh northerly winds behind it and seas to 7 ft. Ahead of the front, there is an elongated area of low pressure that extends from 30N66W to a 1011 mb low near 27N68W to 21N71W. Scattered showers and tstms are associated with this feature and covers the SW N Atlantic waters N of 19N between 55W and 67W. Latest scatterometer data show near gale to gale force winds within 90 nm east of the trough axis and fresh to strong southerly winds elsewhere to 61W. There is a gale warning in effect for that region and you can get further details in the Special Features Section. This disturbance is expected to move northeastward, and there is a slight chance that it could acquire some subtropical characteristics before it merges with the cold front on Tuesday. Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates the remainder central Atlantic waters along with moderate to fresh easterlies and seas to 8 ft. $$ Ramos