000 AXNT20 KNHC 231013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 89W and from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave combined with middle level divergent flow continues to produce scattered showers and tstms over the W Caribbean, mainly west of 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 11N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ begins near 10N20W and continues to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the northern Gulf, extending from 30N88W to 29N91W to 28N97W. Weak surface ridging ahead of the cold front continue to support gentle to moderate northeasterly winds over the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds prevail over the western half of the basin. Water vapor and low level precipitable water imagery depict very dry conditions that continue to support fair weather basin-wide. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range as indicated by recent altimeter data. The cold front will continue moving quickly across the basin while weakening. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf tonight through Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the northern Gulf late on Wed, then stall and lift northward Thu. Looking ahead, a third and stronger cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters over the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave moving over the far west Caribbean along with divergent flow aloft continue to support scattered showers and tstms over that region. Latest scatterometer data depict light to gentle winds across the western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades are noted east of 73W. Dry air at the middle levels is supporting fair weather elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the western half of the Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft E of 74W, and 8 to 9 ft over the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate easterly winds and seas in the 8-9 ft range will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through today. Building high pressure north of the area will bring an increase in winds and seas across the south-central Caribbean Tue through Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Windward passage and south-central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Latest scatterometer data continues to depict the surface trough extending from 30N68W to 22N71W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail east of the trough axis, as well as scattered showers and tstms between 55W-70W. There is a slight chance that the surface trough could acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward over the next day or so. On Tuesday, however, the disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front. Later in the week, this system may have a second opportunity to develop subtropical characteristics if it becomes separated from the front and meanders over the central Atlantic. Over the east Atlantic, a surface trough is about 600 nm west of the Canary Islands along 31N28W to 26N30W, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms N of 28N between 24W and 29W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge that supports generally moderate trade winds. $$ ERA