000 AXNT20 KNHC 211031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 61W, from 17N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis from 11N to 15N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 75W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 71W and 79W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 88W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is moving into Central America, and numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 19N between 86W and 89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 07N26W to 05N32W. The ITCZ continues from 05N32W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 13W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, anchored by high pressure centered over Alabama. A surface trough is analyzed in the SW Gulf from 23N97W to 19N90W in Yucatan. Widely scattered showers are across the basin, from 21N to 27N between 84W and 97W. Winds and seas will continue to diminish today in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. A weak cold front will move across the NE Gulf on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are analyzed in the Caribbean Sea. One is enering the basin near 61W, and another is exiting near 88W. See thr tropical waves section above for more details on these waves. Scattered moderate showers are noted from 15N to 19N between 71W and 83W, scattered moderate to strong showers are evident from 09N to 12N between 76W and 82W, and numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 19N between 86W and 89W. The eastward extension of the Pacific Ocean monsoon trough runs from 08N82W in Panama to 11N76W near the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong showers associated with the monsoon trough are evident from 09N to 12N between 76W and 82W. Winds and seas will diminish across the NW Caribbean Sea through tonight as high pressure north of the area weakens. Large northerly swell will impact the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N60W to 29N64W. A surface trough extends north-northeast of Hispaniola from 19N69W to 24N68W to 27N66W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers a large area from within 300 nm north of, and 150 nm south of, a line from 31N50W to 20N73W. A 1019 mb low pressure center is near 26N30W. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 31N29W. A surface trough is analyzed from 32N30W to 29N29W to 27N29W. An area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is east of the low centers, from 28N to 33N between 21W and 25W. Widely scattered trade wind showers are noted from 06N to 13N between 30W and 55W. The trough north-northeast of Hispaniola will drift westward today. High pressure northwest of the trough will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across most of the region through tonight. The trough may become a weak low pressure area by early next week. A weak cold front will move into the NW waters east of northern Florida on Monday. $$ Mundell