000 AXNT20 KNHC 201029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is from 15N49W to 00N52W, moving westward at 10 kt. A large area of convection is east of the wave axis, south of 10N between 44W and 52W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 69W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 14N to 20N within 270 nm west of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 81W, from 19N southward to Panama, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers are from 09N to 12N, and 15N to 19N, between 80W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The ITCZ extends from 08N14W near Africa to 01N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 11W and 32W, and from 00N to 11N between 33W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front passes from the coast of Cuba near 22N84W, through the Yucatan Channel, and into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers are along the frontal boundary. A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf from Georgia to central Texas. Scatterometer data shows strong E to NE winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Fresh easterly winds are depicted in the eastern Gulf E of 90W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with a stationary front near the Yucatan Channel are expected through Sat morning across the southern Gulf and Straits of Florida. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea, as noted above in the Tropical Waves section. All precipitationin the Caribbean Sea is indirectly or directly related to these two tropical waves. The eastward extension of the monsoon trough in the East Pacific is across Panama near 08N81W into Colombia near 11N73W. Scatterometer data shows strong E to NE winds across most of the NW Caribbean Sea, and fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds and large seas in the northwest Caribbean. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through Sat as the high pressure weakens. Large northerly swell will impact the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front in the north-central Atlantic becomes stationary near 32N48W, and the stationary from continues from 32N48W to 25N65W to central Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate showers with isolated clusters of stronger convection covers a large area in association with the frontal boundary, from 20N to 28N between 56W and 70W, and from 28N to 32N between 48W and 63W. Scatterometer data shows strong NE winds across a large swath of ocean area within 300 nm north of the stationary front, and fresh to strong winds elsewhere NW of the frontal boundary to the coast of Florida. The stationary front will weaken today, and dissipate by Saturday. High pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across most the region through tonight. A trough is expected to form east of the Bahamas this weekend, and may become a weak low pressure area by early next week. $$ Mundell