000 AXNT20 KNHC 192349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N52W to the southern Bahamas to north-central Cuba near 23N78W. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm either side of the front. Strong high pressure continues to build in behind the front supporting strong northeast winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are forecast from 22N-27N and west of the front through this evening, and from 22N-27N between the front and the Bahamas. Large and hazardous seas are possible in the Gulf Stream between the Bahamas and Florida through the Straits of Florida, with large fresh seas also developing NE of the Bahamas through the end of the week in the continued northeast flow. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 47W from 15N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-11N between 35W-55W. A tropical wave is along 66W from 20N southward to central Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are ahead of the wave over Hispaniola coinciding with upper level diffluent flow. A tropical wave is along 78W from near eastern Jamaica to eastern Panama, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is affecting Jamaica adjacent waters and the Windward passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N20W to 04N34W to 05N47W. For information on convection, see the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong autumn high pressure will continue to build southward across the Gulf of Mexico behind a stationary front that extends from western Cuba to across the Yucatan Channel and to the Bay of Campeche. The high pressure will continue to create a very tight gradient between it and the front leading to strong northeast winds. Near gale-force winds may occur in the Straits of Florida. Hazardous conditions are expected between the wind waves against the flow of the Gulf Stream through the Straits of Florida, and due to a southeast swell propagating through the Yucatan Channel. Seas will be highest in the Straits of Florida today, 10-15 ft. Outside of the near gale conditions described above, moderate to fresh E-SE flow and seas of 6-9 ft in NE swell are noted north of 22N and west of 90W, with fresh to strong NE flow and 7-10 ft seas in NE swell elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish through late Sat across the basin. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest Gulf and stall late Sun through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1011 mb low pressure area prevails in the southwest Caribbean north of the Panama Canal near 11N80W. Development of this system is not expected while it moves little over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next several days. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia during the next few days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. Scattered showers and isolated tstms prevails off the east coast of the Yucantan Peninsula and Belize, ahead of a stationary front that passes just north of the Yucatan Channel into the Bay of Campeche. The front will gradually dissipate through Fri. High pressure building N of the front is supporting strong winds and large seas over the far northwestern Caribbean. These winds and seas will diminish through Fri as the high pressure weakens, leaving generally moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin by early next week. Large northerly swell will impact the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the waters from 22N-27N west of a stationary front. Southeast of the stationary front described above, mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 6-10 ft in mixed swell. The stationary front will continue to weaken this evening, then lift NW before dissipating on Fri. High pressure N of the front will support fresh to strong NE-E winds across most the region through Fri, with frequent gusts to gale force from 22N-27N through tonight. A trough will form E of the Bahamas by Fri, and may become a weak low pressure area between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves northeastward. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. $$ Ramos