000 AXNT20 KNHC 170514 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.6N 83.4W at 17/0300 UTC, or 30 nm S of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, moving westward at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater extend 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 150 nm in the SE quadrant, 45 nm in the SW quadrant, and 180 nm in the NW quadrant with peak seas up to 21 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 81W to 87W. Iota is expected to continue moving westward over the next day or two. On the forecast track, Iota is expected to make landfall in northeastern Nicaragua during the next hour or two and move inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras on Tuesday. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast after Iota moves inland, and it is expected to dissipate over Central America on Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by recent effects from Hurricane Eta, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. Iota is forecast to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches in Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeastern Guatemala, and southern Belize, and isolated maximum totals of 30 inches, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Please refer to statements issued by your national meteorological service for more details on the rainfall and flooding threats. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Gale Warning: Strong autumn high pressure building southward across the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front that extends from south-central Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche. The high pressure will create a very tight gradient between it and the front by late Tue. This synoptic set-up is forecast to lead to strong northeast winds, with frequent gusts to gale force over the southeastern Gulf water, including the Straits of Florida and waters adjacent to the Yucatan Peninsula starting Tuesday evening, 18/0000 UTC through Wednesday. Expect building seas 12 to 16 ft across this area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning: The pressure gradient which will lead to frequent gusts to gale force over the southeastern Gulf will also bring frequent gusts to the western Atlantic off the coast of South Florida and the Bahamas. These gusts will begin by Wednesday evening, 19/0000 UTC. Expect seas to build 8 to 11 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30N from 16N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 28W to 31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 18N southward to Suriname, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 51W to 55W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W from 18N southward to northern Venezuela, moving westward at 5-10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N29W then continues west of a tropical wave near 06N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 01N to 07N between 18W to 38W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 04N to 06N between 41W to 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Feature section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning. A cold front extends off the southwest Florida coast near 26N82W to 25N89W. The front stalls from 25N89W to 23N93W to the southern Mexican coast near 18N94W. Showers are within 50 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are noted across the basin as high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Seas are 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 8 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche where strong to near gale-force winds are noted. The cold front will reach the SE Gulf Tue, shifting SE of the basin Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, are expected behind the front across the SE half of the basin, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel Tue night through early Thu. Hazardous seas are expected in the S-central and SE Gulf Tue through Wed night as swell from Hurricane Iota spreads through the Yucatan Channel and combines with NE wind waves. Conditions should improve by the end of the week into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm. See the Tropical Waves section for details on the central Caribbean tropical wave. Outside the influence of Hurricane Iota, scattered moderate convection is moving across the northern islands of the Lesser Antilles. Showers are also noted across the rest of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the eastern and central Caribbean with fresh to strong NNE winds in the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Passage. Seas range 3-6 ft outside the influence of Iota. Hurricane Iota will move inland to 13.7N 84.7W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 13.8N 86.8W Tue evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.8N 88.8W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Tue night and stall from eastern Cuba to the northern Gulf of Honduras early Thu. Strong northerly winds, with gusts to gale force N of 20N, and large seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night. Hazardous seas will be possible across the approach to the Yucatan Channel behind the front as northerly wind waves mix with swell from Iota. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for details on an upcoming Gale Force warning in the western Atlantic. The cold front in the western Atlantic stretches from 31N73W to the southeastern Florida coast near 27N80W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 31N71W to 27N78W. Showers are noted within 50 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh N winds are off the coast of Florida from 28N to 30N and west of 79W, otherwise light N winds are seen behind the front and light to gentle easterly winds are ahead of the front. A cold front is noted in the central Atlantic from 30N37W to 29N39W, then stalls from 29N39W to 28N55WW. No significant convection is associated with this system. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are behind the front with light winds ahead of it. Two troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic. The first is from 26N57W to 21N63W, and the other is from 24N34W to 17N38W. Showers are within 60 nm of these features. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are noted across the basin. Seas range 4 to 8 ft. The cold front will reach from 31N68W to South Florida on Tue, and from 25N65W to central Cuba on Wed night, stalling on Thu. The front will weaken and retreat W-NW for the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are expected across most the SW N Atlantic Tue night through Fri as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible from 22N-27N Wed night into early Fri. $$ AReinhart