000 AXNT20 KNHC 170031 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020 Corrected satellite imagery time Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.6N 82.7W at 16/2100 UTC or 50 nm ESE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua or 90 nm SSE of Cabo Gracia a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduran border. It is moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 919 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Iota is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Iota is forecast to bring catastrophic winds, life-threatening storm surge, and torrential rainfall to Central America. A westward general motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight, and will dissipate over central America by Wednesday. Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm of the center in the western semicircle and within 90 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection denotes an outer band from 12N to 16N between 77W-80W and from 16N to 19N between 78W-83W. Similar activity is within 30 nm of line from 12N75W to 14N76W. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. Iota is forecast to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches in Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeastern Guatemala, and southern Belize, and isolated maximum totals of 30 inches, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Please refer to statements issued by your national meteorological service for more details on the rainfall and flooding threats. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1. shtml for more details. Gale Warning: Strong autumn high pressure building southward across the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front that as of 2100 UTC extends along a position from near Sarasota, Florida, southwestward to 24N90W and to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W will create a very tight gradient between it and the front by late Tue. This synoptic set-up is forecast to lead to strong northeast winds, with frequent gusts to gale force over the southeastern Gulf water, including the Straits of Florida and waters adjacent to the Yucatan Peninsula into Wed. Expect rough seas with these winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W/29W from 02N to 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is moving through a stable atmospheric environment. Only scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the southern part of the wave from 02N to 06N between 23W-29W and within 60 nm west of the wave from 02N to 05N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 18N to inland northeastern Brazil. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Upper-level divergence within this area is helping to trigger off scattered moderate convection along and within 60 nm east of the wave from 11N to 13N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N to 18N between 51W-55W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis is along 66W/67W south of 20N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. This wave lacks deep convection at the present time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N28W. It resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N30W and continues to 05N40W and to near the coast of Brazil and the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-33W and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 33W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Feature section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning. As of 16/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, southwestward to 24N90W and to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm northwest of the front from 20N to 22N. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the cold front with seas up to 5-6 ft in the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. On Tue night, fresh to strong northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected behind the front across the southeast part of the basin, including the Straits of Florida and waters adjacent to the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf, with seas 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except for 5-7 ft seas with the fresh winds. The aforementioned cold front will reach the southeastern Gulf on Tue, then move southeast of the area by Tue night. Hazardous seas are expected in the south-central and in the southeastern Gulf Tue through Wed night as swell from Hurricane Iota spreads through the Yucatan Channel and combines with NE wind waves. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm. Also a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Outside of Iota and the tropical wave, scattered to broken low clouds are noted over the eastern and northwestern part of the sea. High cirrus clouds from outflow associated with Iota are observed over the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate northeast trades in the far northwest part of the sea. Seas range 3-6 ft outside of the influence of Iota. As for the forecast: Major Hurricane Iota near 13.6N 82.7W 919 mb at 4 PM EST moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt. Iota will move inland to 13.7N 83.8W Tue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 13.8N 85.6W Tue afternoon, inland to 13.8N 87.8W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Tue, and stall from eastern Cuba to the northern Gulf of Honduras early Thu. Strong northerly winds and wave heights in the range of 10-14 ft are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night. Hazardous seas will be possible across the approach to the Yucatan Channel behind the front as northerly wind waves mix with swell from Iota. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 16/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near 32N73W southwestward to inland central Florida near Vero Beach. Isolated showers are possible near the front. A dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic extending from near 32N36W to 28N45W and to 29N57W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm north of the front west of 48W, while isolated showers are possible along and within 30 nm south of the front east of 48W. Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds are behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, aided by an upper-level low east of the Lesser Antilles, are moving north are noted from 14N to 20N between 55W-61W. As for the forecast, the front over the western Atlantic will reach from near 32N67W to South Florida on Tue, and from 25N65W to central Cuba on Wed, then stall on Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue night through Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens. Wave heights will build up to 12-13 ft E of the Bahamas. $$ Aguirre