000 AXNT20 KNHC 160528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.3N 80.2W at 16/0300 UTC, or about 70 nm E of Isla de Providencia, Colombia and about 200 nm ESE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border, moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Iota is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane soon. Peak seas are currently 36 ft with 12 ft seas within 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the SE quadrant, 90 nm in the SW quadrant, and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 77W to 83W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. Iota is forecast to produce rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches in Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, and southern Belize, with isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Please refer to statements issued by your national meteorological service. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES An Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 20W from 22N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this system at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 51W from 15N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 07N to 14N between 47W to 51W. A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 65W from 16N southward to Venezuela, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is enhancing some convective activity over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 22W to 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 16/0300 UTC, the cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 27N93W to the coast of northern Mexico near 28N98W. No significant convection is noted with this boundary. Fresh NNE winds follow behind the cold front with seas up to 4 ft. A trough is noted in the southern Gulf from 26N86W to 22N88W with showers within 40 nm of the trough. Gentle to moderate ENE winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche with light winds in the eastern Gulf. Seas are 2-3 ft across the rest of the basin. The cold front will continue to move SE through Tue, reaching the central Gulf Mon, then shifting SE of the basin by Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front across the SE half of the basin and Straits of Florida Tue through Thu night, gradually diminishing Fri and Fri night. Hazardous seas are expected in the S-central and SE Gulf Tue through Wed night as swell from Hurricane Iota spreads through the Yucatan Channel which will combine with NE wind waves. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for all information on Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm. Outside of Iota, fair weather prevails across the eastern and NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate ENE winds in the NW basin. Seas range 3-6 ft outside of the influence of Iota. Hurricane Iota will move to 13.5N 81.4W Mon morning, 13.9N 82.9W Mon evening, inland to 14.2N 84.3W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 14.3N 85.8W Tue evening, move to 14.1N 87.4W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 13.8N 88.8W Wed evening. Iota will dissipate late Thu. Very active weather will persist across northern Colombia and the SW Caribbean through at least tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Tue, and stall from eastern Cuba to the northern Gulf of Honduras early Thu. Hazardous seas will be possible across the approach to the Yucatan Channel behind the front as northerly wind waves mix with southerly swell from Iota. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough is in the western Atlantic, which is remnant of an old stationary front, from 30N73W to 29N79W. Showers are noted near this feature. A cold front extends into the central Atlantic near 31N52W to 29N62W with the tail-end of the front stalling from 29N62W to 29N68W. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are behind the front. A trough located in the central Atlantic is analyzed from 29N49W to 19N57W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the trough from 15N to 26N between 48W to 57W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are north and west of this trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 3-6 ft. A trough, the remnants of an old front, extending from near 31N72W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will gradually dissipate through Mon. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast early Mon, reaching from 31N70W to the near Fort Pierce, Florida early Tue, then from 29N65W to the central Bahamas early Wed, and from 25N65W to the Turks and Caicos early Thu where it will stall Thu night, then will weaken and retreat NW Fri and Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue night through Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ AReinhart