000 AXNT20 KNHC 151800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.1N 78.9W at 15/1800 UTC or 150 nm E of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Rapid strengthening is currently occurring and is expected to continue during the next 24-36 hours. Iota is forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane when it approaches northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Monday. Numerous strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle and within 120 nm W semicircle. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is elsewhere from Panama to 17N between 71W-83W. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend out 150 nm N of the center and up to 75 nm S of the center, with maximum seas of 24 ft near the center. Seas are forecast to build to over 30 ft after Iota becomes a major hurricane. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. The worst flooding and mudslides are expected over Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala and southern Belize, where flooding could be exacerbated by the effects of recent Hurricane Eta, causing potentially catastrophic impacts. Please refer to statements issued by your national meteorological service. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Theta has weakened to a remnant low near 31.5N 18.2W as of 15/1500 UTC, or about 585 nm SE of the Azores moving N at 2 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1010 mb, and maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt. The final advisory has been issued and can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml for the Public Advisory and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for the Forecast/Advisory. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 45W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis from 08N-15N. A tropical wave axis is along 64W from 15N southward to across Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No associated convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 07.5N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07.5N18W to 03N43W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-09N between 25W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front crossed the Texas coast and moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico at 15/1500 UTC, extending from Lake Chares to Galveston to Corpus Christi to northern Mexico near 26N100W. Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the front. Two surface troughs over the basin are producing scattered moderate showers near them. One extends over the Bay of Campeche from 23N91W to 19N92W, and the other extends from 27N86W to 22N87W. Gentle wind speeds are occurring over most of the Gulf of Mexico, except for moderate E winds over the SE Gulf and in the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. The cold front near the Texas coast will reach the central Gulf Mon, shifting SE of the basin by Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front across the SE half of the basin and Straits of Florida Tue through Thu night. Hazardous conditions are possible near and through the Straits of Florida during that time. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Iota is spreading convection across the Caribbean from 09N-17N between 71W-83W and strong winds from 10N-17N between 75W-81W. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Iota and the associated very heavy rainfall threat for Central America. Outside of Iota, moderate to fresh winds are over the basin, except for gentle in the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W. Fresh to strong NE flow is also blowing across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft E of 70W. Hurricane Iota will strengthen to a major hurricane tonight, reaching near 14N81W early Mon, then moving inland near NE Nicaragua late Mon. Iota should then weaken to a tropical depression well inland over southern Honduras late Tue or early Wed. Rough conditions are expected over the Gulf of Honduras through mid-week as Iota moves westward over Central America. Very active weather will persist offshore Colombia and the SW Caribbean through at least tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by mid-week, stalling from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, with hazardous conditions possible near the Yucatan Channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N56W to 29N67W and continues as a stationary front to 28N76W. Isolated showers are possible near the front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh NE to E winds within 90 nm N of the front, east of 77W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds extend south of the front to 25.5N. Fresh NE winds are south of 25N between 63W-78W, including the SE Bahamas, Windward Passage and Mona Passage. Farther east, a mid to upper-level low is near 20N57W. This low now has a surface reflection in the form of a surface trough, which extends from 26.5N52.5W to 17.5N57W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are from 17N-25N between 48W-59W. A 1023 mb high is near 35N32W. A 1010 mb low, the remnants of Theta, is near 31.5N18W. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will gradually stall, and the stationary front will gradually dissipate today. A new cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Tue, then from 29N65W to the SE Bahamas early Wed, and from 26N65W to the Turks and Caicos early Thu. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue night through Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Hagen