000 AXNT20 KNHC 150908 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.1N 77.3W at 15/0900 UTC or 240 nm E of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center of Iota, except within 210 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere from 09N-16N between 72W-80W, and across the remainder of the area from 09N-14N between 69W-83W. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. Please refer to statements issued by your national meteorological service. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft, but are forecast to build significantly to greater than 30 ft as Iota increases to major hurricane strength. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Theta is centered near 31.8N 18.3W at 15/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low later today and could dissipate in a few days. Very limited deep convection remains with Theta with scattered moderate noted between 75 nm and 180 nm in the SE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 44W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N-14N between 42W-49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection, not directly related to the tropical wave but nearby, is noted from 06N-10N between 30W-42W. A tropical wave axis is along 63W from 19N southward to across eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10-15 kt. No associated convection is noted over water, however deep convection is present near the tropical wave axis over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 07N11W to 06N13W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N13W to 02N30W to 03N41W, then resumes from 05N45W to 07N58W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-06N between 16W-36W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-14N between 52W-62W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from North Carolina SW-W across southern Georgia to the upper Texas coast. Overnight scatterometer data showed mainly moderate anticyclonic flow around and under the ridge across the basin, with seas mainly 3 ft or less, locally to 4 ft. The ridge will shift E as a cold front approaches the region. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf later today, reaching the central Gulf Mon, shifting SE of the basin by Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front across the SE half of the basin and Straits of Florida Tue through Thu night. Expect very hazardous conditions near and through the Straits of Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Iota and the associated very heavy rainfall. Outside of Iota, overnight scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate N-NE flow in the western Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades E of 70W and fresh to strong between 70W-75W to the E of Iota. Fresh to strong NE flow was blowing across the approach to the Windward Passage, but these winds have likely diminished to moderate to fresh in the past few hours. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft E of 70W. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by mid-week, stalling from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, with very hazardous conditions possible near the Yucatan Channel. The front will weaken high pressure NE of the area, while Iota is forecast to have moved inland over Central America. This will allow for trades across the SW, central and eastern Caribbean to diminish to mainly moderate. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Theta. A cold front from near 30N65W to 28N70W becomes stationary and continues to near Jupiter, Florida. Overnight scatterometer data showed mainly moderate NE-E flow N of the front. Weak high pressure is noted near 29N62W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted N of 25N and E of the front, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except fresh to strong from 20N to 25N between 45W-55W in areas of convection associated with a mid-to-upper level disturbance. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas to 60W, and 3 ft or less W of the Bahamas, with 6-9 ft seas E of 60W mainly in N to NE swell. The front will stall today and gradually dissipate. A new cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Tue, then from 29N65W to the SE Bahamas early Wed, and from 26N65W to the Turks and Caicos early Thu. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue night through Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Lewitsky