000 AXNT20 KNHC 142340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Iota is centered near 12.6N 76.9W at 14/0000 UTC or 330 nm S of Kingston Jamaica moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight and Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday afternoon or evening. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America late Monday. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection near the center and an increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. This band is close to the coast of Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena where it has been raining all day long. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft and are forecast to build significantly as Iota strengthens. Refer to statements issued by your local meteorological agency for more details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.7N 19.2W at 14/2100 UTC or 540 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 5 kt. A turn to the NE is forecast to occur by late Sunday, and Theta is expected to accelerate to the northeast on Monday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convection is limited. Only isolated moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday morning, and dissipate early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 40W/41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of the wave axis from 04N-10N between 32W-40W. A second tropical wave axis is along 60W from 05N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the wake of the wave axis from 10N-15N between 54W-60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N18W to 07N30W to 07N39W, then resumes from 06N43W to the coast of Suriname. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 23W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters while the remnants of a frontal boundary is noted over South Florida and the SE Gulf producing some cloudiness with embedded showers. The most recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate E-SE winds across most of the basin. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range. The ridge will shift E and weaken across the Gulf through Sun. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, followed by fresh to locally strong northerly winds and building seas. The front will reach the central Gulf by Mon, then move SE of the basin Tue night. A ridge will follow the front. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Cyclone Iota will bring a notable increase in winds and seas across the SE half of the basin, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel Tue through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Attention remains focused on Tropical Storm Iota forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America late Monday. Please, refer to the Special Features section for details. There is a risk of damaging wind and a dangerous storm surge across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. Iota is likely to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central America that are still recovering from Hurricane Eta's impacts. Convection occurring in the SE Caribbean near Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands is due to an approaching tropical wave along 60W. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over the eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between Iota and high pressure N of the basin will result in fresh to locally strong winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba beginning tonight. On Tue, fresh to strong winds associated with Iota's circulation will cover most of the waters N of 16N W of 80W. Persisting northerly winds will maintain very rough conditions across the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W to 28N74W then continues as a stationary front to the NW Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are NW of the front. Fresh SW winds are SE of the front to the north of 30N. Isolated showers are possible near the frontal boundary. High pressure of 1023 mb near 32N41W dominates the central Atlantic. T.S. Theta is forecast to approach the Madeira Islands on Sun. See the Special Features section above for more details on Theta. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will drift SE, then stall tonight and gradually dissipate through Sun. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast by early Mon, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Tue, then from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas early Wed. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens. By Wed, fresh to strong NE-E winds will affect much of the waters W of 70W, including the Bahamas and the regional waters of E Florida. $$ GR