000 AXNT20 KNHC 141803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Iota is centered near 12.7N 76.2W at 14/1500 UTC or 320 nm S of Kingston Jamaica moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America late Monday. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 09N-16N between 68W-82W, although convection is limited in the NW quadrant north of 13N and west of 76.5W. This deep convection extends over coastal sections of northern Colombia and Panama, producing very heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible. The heavy rainfall threat will shift to northern Nicaragua and Honduras Monday through mid-week, also affecting eastern Guatemala and southern Belize by mid-week, as Iota moves inland. These rains will likely lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, especially over northern Nicaragua, Honduras, eastern Guatemala and southern Belize. Refer to statements issued by your local meteorological agency for more details. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft and are forecast to build significantly as Iota strengthens. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.8N 20.2W at 14/1500 UTC or 500 nm SE of the Azores moving E at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Theta is expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis has been added to the analysis along 40W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 59W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N-13N, including near and over Trinidad. Similar convection is seen from 13N-16N within 300 nm E of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 09N17W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N17W to 07N21W to 07N38W, then resumes from 06N42W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-08N between 18W-26W, south of the ITCZ from 03N-07N between 31W-38W, and north of the ITCZ from 07N-09.5N between 26W-38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 05N-10N between 44W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered ridging and relatively dry air cover the Gulf of Mexico. Recent ASCAT data shows mainly moderate E winds across the eastern half of the basin, with gentle to moderate E-SE flow over the western half of the basin. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft across the basin. A high pressure ridge extending from the eastern U.S. to the central Gulf will shift E and weaken across the Gulf through Sun. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the central Gulf by Mon afternoon, then move SE of the basin Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front across the SE half of the basin Tue night through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection occurring south of 16N and west of 68W over the SW portion of the Caribbean is due to Tropical Storm Iota, which was centered about 130 nm NW of Barranquilla Colombia as of 14/1500 UTC this morning. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Iota along with the associated heavy rainfall and flash flooding threats. Convection occurring in the SE Caribbean near Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands is due to an approaching tropical wave along 59W. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate trades between 60W-65W and fresh trades between 65W-70W. Strong winds associated with the circulation of Iota are confined to areas from 10N-18N between 70W-80W. Mainly moderate wind speeds are currently over the NW Caribbean. Outside of Iota, seas are 4-6 ft east of 70W and 2-4 ft in the NW portion of the basin. Tropical Storm Iota will move to near 13N77W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 14N80W Sunday evening, and be near the coast of NE Nicaragua or E Honduras in the vicinity of 14.5N 83W Mon evening as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Very active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the SW Caribbean through the weekend. After landfall, Iota will move westward across Honduras, but squalls and winds in its northern semicircle will likely impact the southern Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday. A cold front may move into the NW Caribbean by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N66W to 28N74W and is stationary from 28N74W to just E of South Florida near 26N79.5W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are NW of the front. Fresh SW winds are SE of the front to the north of 30N. Gentle winds are SE of the front south of 30N. Isolated showers are possible near the front. A surface ridge axis with gentle winds extends from a 1025 mb high near 32N43W to 29N60W to 27N70W. A mid to upper-level low is centered near 22N57W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 18N-27N between 40W-60W. Fresh to locally strong E winds are from 19N-26N between 41W-56W. Strong winds associated with T.S. Theta are confined to areas north of 28N between 16W-26N. See the Special Features section above for more details on Theta. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front extending from 28N74W to near Miami Florida will weaken today. The cold front from 32N68W to 28N74W will drift SE, then stall tonight and gradually dissipate through Sun. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast by early Mon, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Tue, then from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas early Wed. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the front Tue night through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Hagen