000 AXNT20 KNHC 140000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.9N 22.6W at 13/2100 UTC, or 430 nm SSE of the Azores, moving E at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N and W of the center from 31N to 35W between 20W to 24W. A turn toward the east-southeast along with a slowing of forward speed is expected tonight. A continued slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next week. Weakening is expected through the weekend, and Theta should become a remnant low on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Iota is centered near 13.8N 74.3W at 13/2100 UTC, or 290 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica, moving WSW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the southern semicircle from 11N to 14N between 71W to 77W. Scattered moderate convection is in the NE quadrant from 14N to 16N between 72W to 74W. Iota will continue moving WSW through early Saturday. A westward to west- northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras late Sunday and Monday. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica, and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts are underway after Hurricane Eta. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 57W from 21N southward and is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N15W to 06N26W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N26W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 16W to 34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N to 10N between 35W to 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico with fair weather prevailing through the basin. Moderate NNE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf with moderate E winds in the NW Gulf and light winds elsewhere. Seas range 2-4 ft. High pres will remain N of the area through Sun. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the central Gulf by Mon afternoon, then move SE of the basin late Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Iota. Isolated thunderstorms are noted across southeastern Cuba and portions of Jamaica. Otherwise, moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate N winds are in the western Caribbean. Outside of Iota, seas range 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Iota will move in a general WSW motion through Sat and slowly strengthen, reaching near 13.7N76.2W Sat afternoon, then become a hurricane near 13.9N77.5W late Sat night, then strengthen steadily through Mon as it approaches the coast along the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, reaching near 15N82.8W Mon afternoon as a major hurricane. Very active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the SW Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends across The Bahamas and southern Florida from 30N75W to 24N82W with showers noted along it. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 34N51W. Moderate winds are noted across the Atlantic with seas ranging 4-8 ft. Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta is moving NE and well offshore of Cape Hatteras, and will drag a trailing trough across the NW waters southeastward across much of the basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong S to SE winds and associated seas will decrease through this evening across NW portions as Eta moves farther northeastward. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, shifting SE through Tue night. $$ AReinhart