000 AXNT20 KNHC 131804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.7N 23.8W at 13/1500 UTC or 410 nm SSE of the Azores moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N to 35N between 18W and 25W. A turn toward the east-southeast along with a slowing of forward speed is expected later today. A continued slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next week. Little change in strength is forecast today. Weakening is expected through the weekend, and Theta should become a remnant low on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Thirty-One formed in the central Caribbean. Thirty-One is centered near 14.2N 74.3W at 13/1500 UTC or 270 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica, moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection isolated strong convection is from 11N to 16N between 67W and 81W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N to 18N between 67W and 79W. On the forecast track, the system will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras late Sunday and Monday. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 18N with axis near 53W and is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 23N between 46W and 54W.Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N26W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N26W to 06N38W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 0N to 09N between 12W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather conditions are across the gulf being supported by middle level dry air subsidence and surface ridging building over the northern basin. The ridge is supporting gentle to moderate NNE winds E of 90W and light to gentle return flow over ther western half of the basin. High pres will remain N of the area through early Sun. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the central Gulf by late Mon, pushing SE of the basin late Tue night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are forecast across the basin Monday afternoon through early Tue. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure that will build in the wake of the front and current Tropical Depression Thirty-One will support fresh to strong NNE winds across the southern and eastern gulf Tue through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Newly formed Tropical Depression Thirty-One is near 14.2N 74.3W at 10 AM EST moving WSW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Thirty-One will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.0N 75.0W this evening, move to 13.8N 76.0W Sat morning, 13.9N 77.3W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.1N 79.0W Sun morning, 14.5N 80.9W Sun evening, and 14.9N 82.7W Mon morning. Thirty-One will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 15.2N 85.7W early Tue. Very active weather will persist across coastal Colombia and the SW Caribbean through the weekend. Please see the Special Features section above for further details on Tropical Depression Thirty-One. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta is moving NE and offshore of Cape Hatteras, and will drag a trailing trough across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong S to SE winds and associated seas will decrease through this evening across NW portions of the SW N Atlantic as Eta moves farther northeastward. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, shifting SE through Tue night. Tropical Storm Theta is near 31.7N 23.8W 993 mb at 10 AM EST moving E at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Theta will move to 31.5N 22.2W this evening, 31.3N 20.4W Sat morning, 31.0N 19.1W Sat evening, 31.1N 18.3W Sun morning, weaken to a remnant low near 31.3N 18.1W Sun evening, and 32.8N 18.0W Mon morning. Theta will change little in intensity as it moves near 37.4N 15.6W early Tue. Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Theta. Otherwise, surface high pressure and mostly fair weather dominates the subtropical central Atlantic waters while a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is generating a broad area of showers and isolated tstms. Please see further details in the Tropical Waves section. $$ Ramos