000 AXNT20 KNHC 130918 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta is centered near 33.3N 76.8W at 13/0900 UTC or 70 nm SE of Wilmington North Carolina moving ENE at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Post-Tropical Eta has scattered moderate to strong convection noted from 32.5N-36N and west of 71W to just offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Eta extends a trailing trough to near South Florida with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60-75 nm ahead of it, as well as fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-11 ft. Post-Tropical Eta will continue to move away from the area, dissipating completely by late Sat night. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.9N 24.9W at 13/0900 UTC or 390 nm SSE of the Azores moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the NE quadrant and between 60 nm and 180 nm in the SW quadrant of Theta. Theta is forecast to gradually weaken through Sat night, becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Sun afternoon, and dissipating by Tue night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered in the central Caribbean Sea near 15N73W along a tropical wave. Convection has increased and become a little better organized overnight with scattered moderate to strong from 13N-16N between 67W-75W. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form within the next day or two as it moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of this system. Winds associated with this low are forecast to reach gale force/tropical storm force by 36 hours, thus a gale warning has been issued due to high confidence in these conditions. Regardless of tropical development, this disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information refer to products issued by your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 57W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-15N between 50W-57W, along with scattered moderate convection from 11N-12N between 55W-58W. A tropical wave axis is along 74W. Please read the Special Features section above for more details on this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ axis extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 08N30W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-08N between 17W-26W, from 10N-11N between 30W-34W, and from 01N-07N between 35W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is north of the area over the lower Mississippi Valley with a ridge axis extending SW to the western Gulf of Mexico. Overnight scatterometer data showed mainly moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft per recent buoy and ship observations. High pres will be N of the area through Sun, gradually shifting NE-E. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, and reach the central Gulf by late Mon, pushing SE of the basin late Tue night. Winds will becoming NE at moderate to fresh speeds behind the front, except fresh to strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz. Winds will increase to fresh to strong across the basin Tue and Tue night, except in the NW Gulf, due to a tightening pressure gradient. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a tropical wave and developing low pressure area in the central Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, high pressure is northeast of the basin. This high combined with the area of low pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds south of Haiti per overnight scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of mainly 3 ft or less prevail across the western Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions will improve in the central Caribbean as the area of low pressure shifts W-NW with mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevailing across the central and eastern Caribbean in its wake through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Eta and Tropical Storm Theta. Otherwise, high pressure is over the central Atlantic with a ridge axis stretching W-SW to across the Central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds were noted by overnight scatterometer data north of Hispaniola due to a tight pressure gradient, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Combined seas of 6-8 ft dominate the waters W of 60W and E of the Bahamas, with seas of 8-11 ft east of 60W in mixed easterly swell, some generated by Theta. Eta will continue to move NE away from the area overnight. Fresh to strong SE winds and associated seas will decrease through Fri as Eta moves northeastward. Eta will drag a trailing trough across the basin through the weekend. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon, shifting SE through Tue night. Winds will increase to fresh to strong behind the front by Tue night as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Lewitsky