000 AXNT20 KNHC 122337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 31.6N 80.6W at 12/2100 UTC or about 80 nm SSW of Charleston, South Carolina, moving NE at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft with 12 ft seas extending 120 nm in the NE quadrant and 80 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection remains off the coast of South Carolina from 30N to 34N between 76W to 79W. Eta is expected to move faster in a north-northeastward to northeastward direction over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading well east of the Mid- Atlantic coast by late Friday. Little change in strength is forecast through early Friday. Eta could re- intensify as a non- tropical cyclone late Friday or Friday night before becoming absorbed by a larger non- tropical cyclone on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.7N 27.4W at 12/2100 UTC, or about 280 nm S of the Azores, moving E at 10 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Scattered moderate convection is in the NW quadrant from 31N to 34N between 25W to 28W. Theta will continue moving east for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the east-southeast along with a slowing of the forward motion. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure is in the central Caribbean near 15N73W associated with a tropical wave with axis near 73W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 69W and 78W, including southern Hispaniola. Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression will likely form within the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. There is a high chance this system will evolve into a tropical cyclone within the next two days. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office and the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 53W/54W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. See the Special Features section for information on the central Caribbean tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 05N35W to 08N54W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave near 10N57W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N63W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N-09N between 13W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is dominating most of the basin with a dying cold front extending into the NE Gulf. Benign weather prevails with moderate WNW winds are noted in the NW Gulf in the wake of Tropical Storm Eta. Shallow moisture continues to support some dense fog in the north- central and NW Gulf. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft. Eta will continue to move farther NE tonight, while marine conditions across the NE Gulf improve. A stationary front across the north central Gulf will lift north and dissipate through Sat. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, and reach the central Gulf by late Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section on the system with a high chance of development in the central Caribbean. Outside of the tropical wave, showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles with isolated thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean/east of the tropical wave. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the western basin. The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 11N73W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly off the Panama and Costa Rica coast, S of 11N between 77W to 83W. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft near the Mona Passage. Low pressure near associated with a tropical wave will move westward across the central Caribbean tonight and Fri, then across the western Caribbean Fri night through Mon. This system has a high possibility of tropical cyclone development and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. Expect increasing winds, seas and active weather north through northeast of the developing low through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information on TS Eta and TS Theta. Showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eta continue to move eastward across the western Atlantic, off the coast of Florida, from 26N to 31N between 76W to 80W. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high near 34N56W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the basin with fresh to strong SSE winds off the coast of Florida. Seas range 6-8 ft with upwards of 10 ft off the north- central Florida coast. Tropical Storm Eta will continue to move NE and exit to the north of the area tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE winds and associated seas will decrease through Fri as Eta moves northeastward. A trough will move to the north of the Leeward and Virgin Islands Sat through Mon. $$ AReinhart