000 AXNT20 KNHC 121000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 29.1N 83.0W at 12/0900 UTC or 0 nm E of Cedar Key Florida moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across northern Florida and into the SW N Atlc waters off the coast of northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Eta will move across northern Florida today, then move into the SW N Atlc waters this afternoon before lifting north of 31N tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.7N 30.2W at 12/0900 UTC or 410 nm SSW of the Azores moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm NW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 300 nm NW and 120 nm SE semicircles of Eta. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Low pressure has developed in the central Caribbean in association to a tropical wave. Convection associated to this low is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and there is a high chance for a tropical depression to form during the next 2 to 3 days as the system moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers much of the Caribbean waters east of 74W. Low pressure has developed in association to this wave, and there is a high probability for this low to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two days. Please see above for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N14W to 07.5N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N17W to 05N31W to 04N45W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N E of 35W to the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Eta near 29.1N 83.0W 995 mb at 4 AM EST moving NE at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Please see above for more on Eta. Outside of Eta, light to gentle winds prevail, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Eta will move across northern Florida and into the SW N Atlc today. Marine conditions caused by Eta will start to improve today. A stationary front across the north central Gulf will lift north and dissipate through Sat. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, and reach the central Gulf by late Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see above for more on a tropical wave and low pressure moving across the area with a high chance of tropical cyclogenesis. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the 2-4 ft range prevail over the central and western Caribbean. Low pressure along a tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean has a high possibility of tropical cyclone development late this week or this weekend while moving over the central or western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Theta. High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near 33N56W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and Tropical Storm Eta over the NE Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds over the waters west of 65W, with seas peaking near 12 ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. A mid to upper trough is supporting an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 07N to 17N between 45W and 57W. Eta will move across northern Florida this morning, and into the SW N Atlc this afternoon, bringing a brief period of tropical storm winds off the coast of northern Florida. Eta will continue to weaken and move further north of the area tonight. This will loosen the tight pressure gradient over the waters W of 65W that has prevailed since last weekend, and bring a gradual decrease in winds and seas today into Friday. $$ AL