000 AXNT20 KNHC 120553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 12/0600 UTC, is near 28.6N 83.3W, in the Gulf of Mexico. This position is also about 56 nm/105 km to the NNW of St. Petersburg in Florida; and about 56 nm/105 km to the NW of Tampa in Florida. ETA is moving toward the N, or 010 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from Cuba northward between 74W and 84W. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 31.1N 31.4W, in the Atlantic Ocean. THETA is moving toward the ENE, or 60 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 15.5N. Precipitation: numerous strong, in Colombia and Venezuela and in the coastal waters, from 09N to 14N between 67W and 73W; and from 180 nm to 250 nm to the E of the 1009 mb low pressure center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 75W eastward. Satellite imagery indicates that the 1009 mb low pressure center gradually is becoming better organized. It is likely for a tropical depression to form by the weekend. The low pressure center is forecast to move slowly westward, in the central and western sections of the Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, and possible flash flooding, to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and parts of Hispaniola, during the next day or so. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the webpage, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, also. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The only tropical wave that is part of the analysis for 12 November/0000 UTC, is the Caribbean Sea tropical wave that is along 68W/69W. A low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 15.5N. This is the feature that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details. Please, refer to the webpage, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, also. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Guinea, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W, to 06N22W, to 08N26W, 04N36W, to 06N52W in the coastal waters of French Guiana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in individual clusters, is within 155 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 18W and 32W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated to locally strong is elsewhere from the 10N southward from 47W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 12/0600 UTC, is near 28.6N 83.3W, in the Gulf of Mexico. This position is also about 56 nm/105 km to the NNW of St. Petersburg in Florida; and about 56 nm/105 km to the NW of Tampa in Florida. ETA is moving toward the N, or 010 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from Cuba northward between 74W and 84W. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. Tropical Storm Eta near 28.3N 83.4W 993 mb at 10 PM EST moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will move inland to 29.7N 82.4W Thu morning. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico, tonight, before stalling across the central Gulf of Mexico, through late Friday. The front is forecast to move northward, and to dissipate through Saturday. Another cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico late on Sunday. The second cold front will reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N southward, moving westward 5 to 10 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 15.5N. Precipitation: numerous strong, in Colombia and Venezuela and in the coastal waters, from 09N to 14N between 67W and 73W; and from 180 nm to 250 nm to the E of the 1009 mb low pressure center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 75W eastward. Satellite imagery indicates that the 1009 mb low pressure center gradually is becoming better organized. It is likely for a tropical depression to form by the weekend. The low pressure center is forecast to move slowly westward, in the central and western sections of the Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, and possible flash flooding, to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and parts of Hispaniola, during the next day or so. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the webpage, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, also. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W 12N80W, through Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, and beyond 14N92W, in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward. An upper level trough extends from south Florida, to NW Cuba, to the central coast of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N northward from 81W westward. Low pressure, along a tropical wave that is moving across the central Caribbean Sea, has a high possibility of tropical cyclone development, late this week or this weekend, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 31.1N 31.4W. THETA is moving toward the ENE, or 60 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 33N40W to 24N55W, to 18N61W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the south upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the periphery of the upper level trough, from the NE Caribbean Sea to 27N30W in the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong, in individual clusters, is from 06N to 16N between 47W and 57W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean on either side of Tropical Storm THETA. Tropical Storm Eta near 28.3N 83.4W 993 mb at 10 PM EST moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will move across north Florida and reach the Atlantic coast near 31.8N 79.8W Thu evening. Eta will weaken to a tropical depression off South Carolina by Fri night, then continue to weaken as it moves northward along a frontal boundary off the coast, before dissipating on Sat evening. Elsewhere: fresh to strong SE winds and associated seas will decrease through Friday, as Eta moves northward. A trough will move to the north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands, from Saturday through Monday. $$ mt