000 AXNT20 KNHC 120003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 12/0000 UTC, Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 27.9N 83.4W or 40 nm W of St. Petersburg, Florida moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast of west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 30.5N 31.9W at 11/2100 UTC or 510 nm SSW of the Azores moving ENE at 11 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the east along with a slowing of the forward speed. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Currently, Eta is forecast to cross W of the Madeira Islands by Sun. Please read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean along 72W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Satellite imagery shows clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection in the wake of the wave axis, mainly N of 12N between 63W-72W. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the disturbance reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov and to products issued by your local weather office, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone, then continues westward to near 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16N to 04N30W to 05N38W to 06N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 10W and 30W, and from 08N to 14N between 47W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, see Special Feature section for details on Tropical Storm Eta. The Mosaic Doppler Radar from the SE U.S. shows bands of heavy rain associated with the circulation of Eta affecting the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west and north Florida through Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast. The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong winds related to the circulation of Eta all the way from western Cuba to about 29N over the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds dominate the western Gulf. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, before stalling across the central Gulf through late Fri, then lifting north and dissipating through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, and reach the central Gulf by late Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An active tropical wave, with the potential of tropical cyclone formation, is moving across the central Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section for more details. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh southerly winds over the NW Caribbean and western Cuba along with a band of showers and thunderstorms. During the last 24 hours, ending this morning at 7 am EST, Paso Real de San Diego in the province of Pinar del Rio reported the greatest rainfall amount of 8 inches (203 mm). Rainfall totals of 3-4 inches were also reported in parts of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A wind gust to 48 kt (90 km/h) was reported at Casa Blanca, in Havana. Weather conditions will continue to improve over the NW Caribbean and western Cuba as tropical cyclone Eta moves farther N across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For details on tropical cyclone Theta, see the Special Features section above. With Theta, a new record has been established. The 2020 Hurricane Season is now the busiest on record with twenty-nine named storms, breaking the old recod of 28 set back in 2005. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and Eta over the E Gulf of Mexico continues to support an area of fresh to strong E-SE winds over the SW N Atlantic waters, particularly E of Florida to about 75W, and N of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to near 23N. Seas of 9-11 ft are associated with these winds. These conditions will persist tonight into Thu before gradually subsiding through late Thu night. Eta is expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of the southeastern United States. High pressure of 1026 mb located near 34N60W dominates the Atlantic forecast region roughly between 40W-80W. The southern semicircle of Theta covers the waters N of 26N between 28W-36W. A weak ridge reaches the Madeira and the Canary Islands. $$ GR