000 AXNT20 KNHC 111805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Eta is centered near 26.2N 83.7W at 11/1500 UTC or 97 nm WSW of Port Charlotte, Florida moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 20N to 30N between 78W and 85W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Eta could be near hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.8N 33.3W at 11/1500 UTC or 580 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 30N to 35N between 30W and 36W. Theta is forecast to continue on an ENE track through the weekend while slowly weakening. Please read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean extending from 20N southward to 05N with axis near 71W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and isolated tstms are from 12N to 20N between 62W and 72W. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the disturbance reaches the western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone deveopment within the next two days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 08N13W and continues to 08N15W. The ITCZ begins near 08N15W and continues along 05N30W to 06N50W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 10W and 33W, and from 06N to 13N between 39W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Eta near is near 26.2N 83.7W at 10 AM EST moving NNE at 9 kt. Eta will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 83.4W this evening, and move to 28.9N 82.7W Thu morning, approaching the Florida coast. Eta will continue onshore over north-central Florida Thu, then weaken to a tropical depression near 30.5N 81.3W Thu evening. Eta will weaken further to a remnant low through Fri as it encounters a frontal boundary over the Atlantic off Georgia. That cold front will move into the NW Gulf today and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night and dissipate through Sat as high pressure builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Please see the special features section for more details on Hurricane Eta. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E winds will dominate the basin in the wake of Eta. The next front is forecast to enter the NW gulf on Sun night and extend from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche Mon afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh SSW winds over western Cuba adjacent waters along with scattered showers and tstms. Winds and seas in the far NW Caribbean will continue to improve today as Eta moves farther N over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and a tropical wave moving across Hispaniola today is supporting moderate to fresh ESE winds across the E Caribbean Sea. Furthermore, the wave is supporting heavy showers and isolated tstms over the Caribbean waters between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. A low pressure could form along the wave within the next couple of days with the potential for tropical cyclone development late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the western basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.8N 33.3W at 11/1500 UTC. Theta will move to 30.3N 31.9W this evening, 30.7N 29.7W Thu morning, 31.1N 27.3W Thu evening, 31.5N 25.1W Fri morning, 31.8N 23.2W Fri evening, and 31.9N 22.0W Sat morning. Theta will change little in intensity as it moves near 32.2N 20.6W early Sun. For further details on Theta, see the special features section above. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Eta over the E Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong E-SE winds over the SW N Atlantic waters through tonight. These winds will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic before gradually subsiding through late Thu night. The remnant low of Eta will emerge off northeast Florida Fri, and merge with a stalling frontal boundary before dissipating through Sun. $$ Ramos