000 AXNT20 KNHC 111002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 25.0N 84.1W at 11/0900 UTC or 150 nm SW of Ft. Myers Florida moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm E and 90 nm W semicircles of Eta. Eta is forecast to continue on a NNE track. The current forecast is for Eta to reach hurricane intensity today, then weaken to a tropical storm tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.4N 34.7W at 11/0900 UTC or 640 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE semicircle of Theta. The system is forecast to continue on an ENE track the next several days while slowly weakening. Please read the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over much of the eastern Caribbean N of 15N in association to the wave, including portions of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 10N16W to 05N24W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 37W, and from 01N to 10N between 40W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Eta. Eta will continue to impact the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so before moving inland over Florida on Thursday. Once Eta moves inland, marine conditions will start to improve. Outside of T.S. Eta, fresh to strong winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf. Tropical Storm Eta near 25.0N 84.1W 988 mb at 4 AM EST moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Eta will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.4N 83.9W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 27.9N 83.4W Thu morning, then will move inland to 29.2N 82.6W Thu afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf today and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Eta is over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25.0N 84.1W. Winds and seas associated with Eta continue to impact the far NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Over this area, fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft prevail. Eta will continue to move farther north over the Gulf of Mexico today, with conditions over the NW Caribbean improving today. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over the central Caribbean and remainder of the western Caribbean. Active convection is covering much of the eastern Caribbean in association to a tropical wave. This tropical wave has a chance of contributing to tropical cyclogenesis over the central or eastern Caribbean later this week or weekend. Please see the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Theta. High pressure of 1028 mb is centered over the Atlantic waters near 35N60W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and T.S. Eta is supporting fresh to strong winds over the SW N Atlc waters west of 60W. Winds have remained strong over this area for the past several days, helping for seas of 8-12 ft over the open waters outside the Bahamas. Winds will finally start to diminish Thursday as the high pressure center shifts slightly eastward and T.S. Eta begins to weaken. Elsewhere over the discussion water N of 12N and outside of Theta, gentle to moderate winds prevail. S of 20N, moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail. $$ AL