000 AXNT20 KNHC 102348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.4N 36.2W at 10/2100 UTC or 690 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Eta is experiencing SW shear, and numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is displaced to within 180 nm in the northeast quadrant, and scattered moderate convection within 90 nm in the southeast quadrant. Eta is expected to strengthen a little through midday Wed, then gradually weaken as it moves northward toward the Florida Big Bend area through the end of the week. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4. shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.4N 36.2W at 10/2100 UTC or 690 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. The storm has transitioned from a subtropical to tropical storm in the past several hours. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 29N to 34N between 35W and 40W. An eastward to east- northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by later this week. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean with axis along 67W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 13N-18N between 62W-65W. The tropical wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 2 days. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 13N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W to 07N30W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 40W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Outside of convection associated to T.S. Eta, the Gulf of Mexico is free of any significant precipitation. Strong to near gale force winds are evident over the eastern Gulf east of 90W, on the periphery of Eta. Buoy and platform observations show gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 90W. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf from west to east as high pressure builds over the southern Plains through late Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night, then lift back north as a warm front Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the northwest Gulf late Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. Eta is north of the western tip of Cuba and the eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel, and will remain in that vicinity through the evening, spreading rain squalls and high seas over the area. Eta will move northward and away from the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday. Large swells from Eta are expected to propagate over the western Caribbean today before subsiding on Wednesday. Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection is from 13N-18N between 62W-65W, including near and over portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean, strong winds in the northwest Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere in the basin. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure could form along the wave with the potential for tropical cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central Caribbean beginning on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for information on Tropical Storm Theta. A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic from the northeast Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida. Upper- level diffluence over the area is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60 to 90 nm east of central and northern Bahamas. Strong SE winds cover most of the area in a 180 nm swath from the Leeward Islands, to east of the Bahamas to off northeast Florida, between high pressure to the north and T.S. Eta to the west. Seas are 8-11 ft in this area. These winds will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic before gradually subsiding through late Thu night. Farther east, seas in excess of 8 ft cover the waters north of 20N between 30W and 50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident south of 20N west of 40W. Moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. $$ Christensen