000 AXNT20 KNHC 101651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 22.7N 85.3W at 10/1500 UTC or 52 nm NNW of the western tip of Cuba stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 21N-24N between 83W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 20N-25N between 79W-88W. Little motion is expected today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and continue through Thursday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4. shtml for more details. Subtropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.0N 37.4W at 10/1500 UTC or 747 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N between 35W-40W. An eastward to east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by later this week. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean with axis along 66W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 09N-19N between 60W-68W. The wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 2 days. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 13N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W to 07N30W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N-13N between 40W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Outside of convection associated to T.S. Eta, the Gulf of Mexico is free of any significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force winds over the eastern Gulf east of 89W, from the Yucatan Channel to 30N, except for tropical storm force winds near Tropical Storm Eta. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 91W. Eta will move to 23.1N 85.4W this evening, 24.0N 85.3W Wed morning, 25.0N 85.2W Wed evening, 25.9N 85.1W Thu morning, 26.6N 85.2W Thu evening, and 27.2N 85.5W Fri morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 28.6N 86.4W early Sat. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gulf waters E of 87W. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night, then lift back north as a warm front Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. Eta is close to the western tip of Cuba and the eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel, and will remain in that vicinity through today, spreading rain squalls and high seas over the area. Eta will move northward and away from the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday. Large swells from Eta are expected to propagate over the western Caribbean today before subsiding on Wednesday. Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 15N-21N between 66W-71W, including near and over portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh winds in the E Caribbean, strong winds in the NW Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere in the basin. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure could form along the wave with the potential for tropical cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central Caribbean beginning on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for information on Subtropical Storm Theta. A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic from the NE Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida. Upper-level diffluence over the area is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from 20N-30N between 63W-81W. Stronger, more concentrated convection is seen just north of Puerto Rico and in the Mona Passage. Strong SE winds cover most of the area from the Bahamas northward to 32N and eastward to 68W. Fresh winds are elsewhere outside the stronger wind area from the Greater Antilles to 32N between 60W-82W. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Eta over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will support strong winds over the western Atlantic today before diminishing Wed. These winds will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic today before gradually subsiding through late Thu night. $$ Formosa