000 AXNT20 KNHC 101005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 22.9N 85.5W at 10/0900 UTC or 70 nm NNW of the western tip of Cuba stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 120 nm E and 30 nm W semicircles. Eta will be near the western tip of Cuba and eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel through today before moving northward. Gradual strengthening is possible though Wed before beginning a weakening trend Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Subtropical Storm Theta is centered near 28.8N 39.5W at 10/0900 UTC or 830 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm NE and 90 nm SW semicircles. A general ENE motion is expected to continue during the next two to three days. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours followed by little change in strength through Thursday. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. West Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force E winds continue across the western Atlantic to the east of Florida, with frequent gusts to gale force within 60 nm of the coast of Florida. The Gale Warning will expire early this morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean with axis near 66W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is east of the wave axis from 12N-16N between 60W-65W. This tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. A tropical depression could then form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 07N24W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N- 11N between 37W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Outside of convection associated to T.S. Eta, the Gulf of Mexico is free of any significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force winds over the eastern Gulf east of 89W, from the Yucatan Channel to 30N, except for tropical storm force winds near Tropical Storm Eta. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 91W. Eta will move to 23.1N 85.6W this afternoon, 24.0N 85.6W Wed morning, 25.0N 85.4W Wed afternoon, 26.0N 85.3W Thu morning, 26.8N 85.3W Thu afternoon, and 27.3N 85.4W Fri morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 28.8N 86.5W early Sat. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night, then lift back north as a warm front Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. Eta is close to the western tip of Cuba and the eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel, and will remain in that vicinity through today, spreading rain squalls and high seas over the area. Eta will move northward and away from the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday. Large swells from Eta are expected to propagate over the western Caribbean today before subsiding on Wednesday. Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 15N-21N between 66W-71W, including near and over portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh winds in the E Caribbean, strong winds in the NW Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere in the basin. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure could form along the wave with the potential for tropical cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central Caribbean beginning on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for information on Subtropical Storm Theta and the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic from the NE Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida. Upper-level diffluence over the area is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from 20N-30N between 63W-81W. Stronger, more concentrated convection is seen just north of Puerto Rico and in the Mona Passage. Strong SE winds cover most of the area from the Bahamas northward to 32N and eastward to 68W. Fresh winds are elsewhere outside the stronger wind area from the Greater Antilles to 32N between 60W-82W. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Eta over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will support strong winds over the western Atlantic today before diminishing Wed. These winds will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic today before gradually subsiding through late Thu night. $$ AL