000 AXNT20 KNHC 100530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 23.2N 85.2W at 10/0300 UTC, or 80 nm NNW of the western tip of Cuba, moving SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 120 nm S semicircle, including the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Maximum significant wave height near the center of Eta is currently 24 ft. The cyclone will be near the western tip of Cuba and eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel through today. Strengthening is possible today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and then continue through the end of the week as Eta moves northward. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. The gale force low that was near 29N41W has developed into Subtropical Storm Theta. Subtropical Storm Theta is near 28.8N 40.3W as of 10/0300, or about 865 nm SW of the Azores, moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The strongest winds are occurring west of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and 90 nm SW semicircle. A general ENE motion is expected to continue during the next two to three days. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours followed by little change in strength through Thursday. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. West Atlantic Gale Warning: Near gale force E winds continue across the western Atlantic to the east of Florida, with frequent gusts to gale force from 28N-31N between 78W-81W. Seas in the area are 11 to 16 ft. The Gale Warning is forecast to expire by 1200 UTC this morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 65W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is east of the wave axis from 14N-17N between 60W-64W, including near and over Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe. This tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. A tropical depression could then form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward, and there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 06N27W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-11N between 35W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is free of any significant precipitation, outside of the convection associated with Tropical Storm Eta, described above in the Special Features section. Eta's rains are currently confined to areas south of 27N and east of 88W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force winds over the eastern Gulf east of 89W, from the Yucatan Channel to 30N, except for tropical storm force winds near Tropical Storm Eta. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 91W. Tropical Storm Eta will move to near 25N85W Wed morning, 27N85W Thu morning, and to 28N86W late Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night, then lift back north as a warm front Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. Eta is close to the western tip of Cuba and the eastern portion of the Yucatan Channel right now, and will remain in that vicinity through today, spreading tropical storm force squalls and high seas over the area. Eta will pull away from the Yucatan Channel and move N, beginning on Wednesday. Large swells from Eta are expected to propagate over the western Caribbean today before subsiding on Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 15N-21N between 66W-71W, including near and over portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. The convection that is occurring over portions of the Lesser Antilles is described in the Tropical Waves section above. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh winds in the E Caribbean, strong winds in the NW Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere in the basin. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure could form along the wave with the potential for tropical cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central Caribbean beginning on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for information on newly formed Tropical Storm Theta and the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic from the NE Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida, as shown in the latest TPW imagery. Upper-level diffluence over the area is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from 20N-30N between 63W-81W. Stronger, more concentrated convection is seen just north of Puerto Rico and in the Mona Passage. Strong SE winds cover most of the area from the Bahamas northward to 32N and eastward to 68W. Fresh winds are elsewhere outside the stronger wind area from the Greater Antilles to 32N between 60W-82W. Near gale force winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, are from 28N-31N between 78W-81W. High pressure is to the north of the area over the western Atlantic, with a 1027 mb high north of Bermuda. Farther east, a surface trough extends SW from Subtropical Storm Theta to 20N49W. Scattered showers extend well southward and eastward from this trough axis. Outside of the convection directly associated with T.S. Theta described above, scattered moderate convection extends from 23N-40N between 26W-41W. A 1028 mb high is centered near 39N13W. A tight gradient between strong high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Eta over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will support strong to near gale force winds over the western Atlantic during the next couple of days. Gale force winds will continue off the coast of northern Florida through 0900 UTC this morning. These winds will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic through today before gradually subsiding through late Thu night. $$ Hagen