000 AXNT20 KNHC 091006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 25.2N 82.0W at 09/0900 UTC or 40 nm NNW of Key West Florida moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 270 nm north of the center. Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall today over South Florida and the Bahamas could lead to additional flooding. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. West Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states is resulting in a large area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across the western Atlantic, west of 67W. Within this area, gale force winds are currently occurring west of 76W and north of 27N. The gale warning will remain in effect for this area through this evening, before winds diminish below gale force tonight. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. North Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low is currently near 28N45W and is producing winds of 20-25 kt from 26N-31N between 41W- 48W. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-32N between 35W-45W. The low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours while the system moves eastward. Regardless of whether it becomes tropical, the low is forecast to produce gale force winds Tuesday morning north of 26N and east of 42W. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean with axis near 62W, moving W at 10 kt. A surface trough is associated with this tropical wave, as noted in a recent ASCAT pass. Fresh SE winds are east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and within 360 nm east of the wave axis from 12N-18N. Expect enhanced rainfall this morning over portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. This tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 12N16W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 05N23W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 30W- 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around 11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it has moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of extreme southwestern Florida. A large upper-level low centered over T.S. Eta is aiding in wrapping dry air into the circulation from the southwest quadrant. Scattered showers associated with Eta cover the SE Gulf, east of 84W from 22N-29N. Fresh to strong NE winds are over the eastern Gulf, east of 90W, with tropical storm force winds near the Florida Keys. For more details on Eta, please see the Special Features section above. West of 90W, mainly gentle wind speeds prevail. The NW Gulf has seas of 4 to 6 ft, while the SW Gulf seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. No significant precipitation is seen west of 85W. Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 25.2N 82.0W early this morning. Eta will move to 24.6N 83.7W this afternoon, 23.8N 84.7W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 85.1W Tue afternoon, 24.8N 85.1W Wed morning, 26.0N 85.0W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 26.7N 84.7W Thu morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 27.8N 84.2W early Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Eta is centered off the coast of southwestern Florida. A large upper- level low centered over T.S. Eta extends upper- level troughing over the NW Caribbean. An upper-level ridge covers the remainder of the Caribbean. Due to the positioning of these upper- level features, strong upper-level diffluence and divergence are occurring over the southeast Bahamas, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. As a result, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N-21N between the British Virgin Islands and the eastern Dominican Republic, including near and over Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is also seen east and south of Jamaica from 14N-19N between 75W-78W. Scattered moderate convection is over northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras due to the east Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Tropical Storm Eta near 25.2N 82.0W 992 mb at 4 AM EST moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will move to 24.6N 83.7W this afternoon, 23.8N 84.7W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 85.1W Tue afternoon, 24.8N 85.1W Wed morning, 26.0N 85.0W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 26.7N 84.7W Thu morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 27.8N 84.2W early Fri. A tropical wave, currently in the far eastern Caribbean, will reach the central Caribbean in a few days with the possibility for low pressure to develop from it. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Eta is centered just off the coast of southwest Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection directly associated with Eta extends between the NW Bahamas and South Florida. Scattered moderate convection also extends offshore central and northern Florida. Although the tropical storm force winds associated with Eta extend to 27N west of 78W, gale force E winds of 35 kt due to a tight pressure gradient extend northward N of 27N between 76W-81W. Strong to near gale force winds are elsewhere W of 65W. Farther east, a 1007 mb low near 28N45W is being monitored for tropical cyclone potential. See the Special Features section above for details. A 1026 mb high is centered near 33N21W. Tropical Storm Eta near 25.2N 82.0W 992 mb at 4 AM EST moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will move to 24.6N 83.7W this afternoon, 23.8N 84.7W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 85.1W Tue afternoon, 24.8N 85.1W Wed morning, 26.0N 85.0W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 26.7N 84.7W Thu morning. Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 27.8N 84.2W early Fri. Strong to near gale winds will prevail over the western Atlantic the next couple of days, with gale force winds prevailing off the coast of northern Florida today and tonight. These winds will maintain large seas in the western Atlantic through Tue before gradually subsiding through late Thu night. $$ AL