000 AXNT20 KNHC 082249 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 23.9N 79.5W at 08/2100 UTC or 98 nm ESE of Marathon Florida, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Most of the convection in the SW quadrant eroded due to dry air in the upper levels mixing in and around the entire circulation. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N to 31N between 70W and 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and thunderstorms are from 12N to 24N between 65W and 74W, including portions of Jamaica, Cuba, the Windward Passage Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 nm from the center. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been reported along much of the southeast Florida coast during the past few hours. Seas 12 ft of greater within 60 nm of center except 90 nm SE quadrant with seas to 25 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas this afternoon, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding is possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and South Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Southwest North Atlantic gale warning... The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across the western Atlantic, west of 67W. These winds are forecast to increase to gale force this evening and prevail through Mon morning with seas building up to 20-22 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml North Central Atlantic Gale warning... The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the N of the region and low pressure over the N Central Atlantic will induce in an area of gale force winds across the N Central Atlantic, east of 35W. The winds are forecast to begin Tue into Wed with seas building between 10-18ft. Please visit NHC High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 60W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-18N between 56W and 62W, including Venezuela and Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea, Africa near 09N13W SW to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 07N39W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 25W and 37W, and from 10N to 16N between 42W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are in the eastern half of the Gulf ahead of Tropical Storm Eta, which is along the Florida Straits 23.9N 79.5W at 08/2100 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Eta will move to near 24.7N 81.1W late tonight, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 83.4W early Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt and maintain intensity as it moves to near 23.6N 84.8W late Mon night, to near 24.0N 85.1W early Tue afternoon, then turn to the north-northeast to near 25.1N 85.0W late Tue night and weaken to a tropical storm near 25.8N 84.8W early Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts to 75 kt. Expect for marine conditions to deteriorate, with increasing winds and seas as Tropical Storm Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today through Mon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri. Long-period swell will impact the area through the upcoming week. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri. Long-period swell will impact the area through the upcoming week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Eta continues to move towards the NW away from Cuba into the Florida Straits. However, the tropical storm force winds associated With T.S. Eta extend out to 150 nm. The outer rainbands of Eta are still supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the central Caribbean, including Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh SW to W winds across the Caribbean waters W of 74W, and moderate SE to E winds E of 74W. Seas over southern-central Cuba adjacent waters are up to 10 ft. Marine conditions will slowly improve through Tue. A tropical wave, currently just east of the Windward Islands, will reach the central Caribbean in a few days with low pressure developing from it. Expect for trade winds to increase and seas to build over the north-central Caribbean beginning on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta and Gale Warning for the western N Atlantic. Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 23.9N 79.5W at 08/2100 UTC. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds are observed across the western Atlantic north of 24N west of 65W. The combination of the 1027 mb high to the north and T.S. Eta will induce Gale force winds north of 27N. The convection noted west of 65W is associated to T.S. Eta. Further east, ASCAT shows the 1014 mb low pressure near 28N46W with a trough extending From 30N43W to 23N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 33N between 41W-48W. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N15W to 30N18W and stalls near 30N30W. No significant convection is noted near the front. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic through Tue before gradually subsiding through Thu night. $$ MTorres