000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 22.5N 79.2W at 08/1500 UTC or 50 nm W of Camaguey Cuba, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 20N to 29N between 69W and 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and thunderstorms are from 12N to 20N between 67W and 81W, including portions of Jamaica, Cuba, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding is possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and South Florida. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 60W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 57W and 63W, including Venezuela and Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea, Africa near 10N14W SW to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 06N30W to 08N43W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 14W and 20W, from 01N to 11N between 23W and 43W, and from 10N to 17N between 44W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE winds are in the eastern half of the Gulf this morning ahead of Tropical Storm Eta, which is along the coast of Cuba near 22.5N 79.2W at 10 AM EST. Eta will move to near 24.1N 79.8W this evening, then turn westward on Mon morning as it is near 24.5N 82.4W with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt and maintain this intensity as it moves to near 23.9N 84.1W Mon evening. Eta then will move to near 23.8N 85.0W Tue morning, to near 24.0N 85.5W Tue evening and to near 24.9N 85.2W Wed morning. Eta will begin to weaken as it reaches near 26.2N 84.5W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Expect for marine conditions to deteriorate, with increasing winds and seas as Tropical Storm Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today through Mon. Expect heavy rainfall over the eastern half of the basin through at least Thu night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri. Long-period swell will impact the area through the upcoming week. Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Eta is along the coast of Cuba near 22.5N 79.2W at 10 AM EST. However, the outer rainbands of Eta are still supporting scattered moderate to isolate strong convection across the central Caribbean, including Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh SW to W winds across the Caribbean waters W of 74W. Seas over southern-central Cuba adjacent waters are up to 10 ft. Scattered showers are over portions of Puerto Rico associated with the rainbands of Eta. Similar weather is expected to prevail through Thu as a tropical wave, currently with axis near 60W moves across the E Caribbean waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical Storm Eta is along the coast of Cuba near 22.5N 79.2W at 10 AM EST moving NE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Eta will move to near 24.1N 79.8W this evening, then turn westward on Mon morning as it nears 24.5N 82.4W with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Eta will maintain intensity as it moves across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to near 23.9N 84.1W Mon evening, to near 23.8N 85.0W Tue morning, to near 24.0N 85.5W and track north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thu while weakening. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas through early Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic through Tue before gradually subsiding through Thu night. The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across the western Atlantic, west of 67W. These winds are forecast to increase to gale force this evening and prevail through Mon morning with seas building up to 20-22 ft just N of the NW Bahamas and E of central Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to extend farther N of Eta's center as its wind field greatly expands. $$ Ramos