000 AXNT20 KNHC 080531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 08 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 20.7N 79.9W or 120 nm WSW of Camaguey Cuba moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 240 nm E semicircle and 60 nm W semicircle, including over portions of Jamaica and Cuba. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba this morning, approach South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon, and pass near or over South Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday. A tropical storm warning is in effect for South Florida and the Florida Keys. A hurricane watch and storm surge watch are in effect for portions of Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding is possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are also possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and South Florida. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 04N-18N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-13N between 52W-59W. Fresh winds are associated with the wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from West Africa near 10N14W and extends to near 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N30W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm either side of the ITCZ between 17W-40W. West of 40W, scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover the eastern Gulf east of 90W as well as the Florida Straits. Strong E winds are in the eastern Gulf, except for near gale in the Florida Straits. The western Gulf contains moderate wind speeds along with clear to partly cloudy skies. Tropical Storm Eta, located just south of central Cuba, will move N through the Florida Straits this afternoon, be near the Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and move into the SE Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Expect marine conditions to deteriorate, with increasing winds and seas as Tropical Storm Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Eta, located south of Cuba, is forecast to move northward into Cuba this morning before emerging over the Straits of Florida late today. At that time, winds, seas and squalls will be decreasing over the NW Caribbean Sea. A line of scattered strong convection exists from the NE coast of Nicaragua to western Jamaica currently, in addition to the convection mentioned above in the special features section for Tropical Storm Eta. Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation of Eta extend farther S to about 15N based on scatterometer data. These winds are associated with a surface trough extending from 17N80W to 14N83.5W. Mainly moderate trade winds dominate the eastern Caribbean in the wake of a tropical wave located along 73W. This wave will move west and gradually become absorbed in the broadening circulation of Eta today through Mon, and spread moisture across the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas this afternoon through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic through Tue, gradually subsiding through Thu night. The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large area of strong easterly winds across the western Atlantic, west of 67W. These winds are forecast to persist this morning, with seas building up to 20-22 ft just N of the NW Bahamas and E of central Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to extend farther N of Eta's center as its wind field greatly expands. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from a 1014 mb low pressure located near 26N49W to 21.5N52.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted to the east of the feature from 20N-32N between 40W-51W. Gentle to moderate winds are observed near this feature. $$ Hagen