205 AXNT20 KNHC 072321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 20.4N 80.7W or 70 nm NNE of Grand Cayman moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Tropical storm winds are within 50 nm NE quadrant, 90 nm SE quadrant, 20 nm SW quadrant, and 40 nm NW quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 60 nm East semicircle and 30 nm West semicircle with seas to 14 ft. Satellite imagery shows a large area of moderate to strong convection within 250 nm in the NE quadrant and 260 nm SE quadrant of Eta. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, and pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday. A tropical Storm warning is in effect for South Florida and the Florida Keys. Some additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm) with isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm) are expected in the Cayman Island and portions of Cuba. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 06N-17N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 08N-13N between 52W-58W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are associated with the wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. An area of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen ahead of the wave axis from 13N-15N between 70W-75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea and extends to near 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 06N30W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-11N between 24W-41W, and from 08N-14N between 43W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for more information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, on Sun. The tropical storm conditions will spread northward across the eastern Gulf through Wed. A band of showers is noted over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf. Mosaic Doppler radar from the SE U.S. shows increasing shower and thunderstorm activity east of 83W including over South Florida. Currently, fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States, and Tropical Storm Eta in the NW Caribbean, north of Jamaica. Gentle to moderate winds are over the remainder are evident over the western portion the Gulf waters with no significant convection. Expect for marine conditions to deteriorate, with increasing winds and seas as Tropical Storm Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Feature section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. Eta will move north of the area late Sun, with conditions starting to improve into early next week. Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation of Eta extend farther S to about 14N based on scatterometer data. Mainly moderate trade winds dominate the eastern Caribbean in the wake of a tropical wave located along 71W. This wave will move west and gradually become absorbed in the broadening circulation of Eta Sun through Mon, and spread moisture across the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Feature section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas tonight through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue. The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 22N W of 70W. These winds are forecast to persist Sun and Sun night, with seas building up to 20-22 ft just N of the NW Bahamas and E of central Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to extend farther N of Eta's center as its wind field greatly expands. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N48W to a 1014 mb low pressure located near 26N51W, then it continues SW to near 21N56W. Scattered moderate convection are noted to the east of the Feature from 18N-21N between 42W-50W. Light and variable winds are Observed near these two features. Another surface trough extends from 24N32W to 20N38W. $$ Torres