000 AXNT20 KNHC 071806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eta has regained tropical storm strength as the center reforms to the NE near an area of deep convection. AT 07/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 20.0N 81.1W or 40 nm N of Grand Cayman moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large area of moderate to strong convection within 150 nm E and 60 nm W semicircles of Eta. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move away from the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday. A tropical Storm warning is in effect for South Florida and the Florida Keys. Some additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm) with isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm) are expected in the Cayman Island and portions of Cuba. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 06N-18N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 09N-14N between 50W-59W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are associated with the wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. An area of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen ahead of the wave axis from 11N-15.5N between 70W-75W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea and extends to near 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N30W to 08N40W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 02N-06N between 24W-29W, and from 06N-11N between 32W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for more information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, on Sun. The tropical storm conditions will spread northward across the eastern Gulf through Wed. A band of showers is noted over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf. Mosaic Doppler radar from the SE U.S. shows increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over South Florida. Currently, fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States, and Tropical Storm Eta in the Caribbean, over the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are over the remainder of the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Feature section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. Eta will move north of the area late Sun, with conditions starting to improve into early next week. Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation of Eta extend farther S to about 15N based on recent scatterometer data. Mainly moderate trade winds dominate the eastern Caribbean in the wake of a tropical wave located along 70W. This wave will move west and gradually become absorbed in the broadening circulation of Eta Sun through Mon, and spread moisture across the Greater Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Feature section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas tonight through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue. The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 22N W of 70W. These winds are forecast to persist Sun and Sun night, with seas building up to 20-22 ft just N of the NW Bahamas and E of central Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to extend farther N of Eta's center as its wind field greatly expands. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N49W to a 1014 mb low pressure located near 26N51W, then it continues SW to near 20N55W. Scattered moderate convection and mainly light and variable winds are noted near these two features. Another surface trough extends from 24N34W to 20N37W. $$ GR